Iran tensions lift oil while ceasefire hopes boost stocks — long oil majors on s
Created
Thesis
Oil is advancing after a tanker carrying Qatari crude was hit amid renewed US-Iran fighting, straining the ceasefire and threatening shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the ceasefire is fragile — the US struck Iran after accusing Tehran of violating it, and Trump is threatening 'annihilation' as attacks spread to Kuwait and Bahrain. Even if peace talks resume, the oil market is pricing in real supply risk. Oil majors stand to benefit directly from higher crude prices if the strait remains dangerous for shipping.
Strategy approach
Build a long-only strategy on XOM and CVX on the D1 timeframe. Enter when front-month WTI crude oil futures (CL1) close up more than 2% on the day and the 14-day ATR of WTI is expanding (current ATR > 20-day average ATR). Exit after 10 trading days or if WTI drops 5% from its entry-day close. Equal-weight allocation between XOM and CVX.
Markets and timeframes
What this public preview can establish
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