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Public trading strategy

Oil supply shock hits as US blocks Iran sales — go long on major oil producers

Created

Thesis

By combining reports of US military strikes on Iran with the specific policy action of revoking Iran's oil sale waivers, we see a direct supply-shock thesis. The article noting that stocks are falling specifically because of a rally in oil prices confirms that the market views this as a high-impact macro event. With the ceasefire declared 'over,' this geopolitical premium is unlikely to fade quickly, making oil exporters the direct beneficiaries of the reduced global supply.

Strategy approach

Build a rule-based strategy that enters long USO on D1 when price breaks above the 10-day high with a 2% acceleration filter. Use a 4% trailing stop and exit if the price closes below the 5-day low.

Markets and timeframes

What this public preview can establish

  • The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
  • No inspectable rule definition is included in this public preview. Do not infer a trigger from the thesis or approach.
  • No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.

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