Tesla and Rivian deliveries crush expectations while weak jobs kill rate-hike fe
Thesis
Tesla just delivered a surprising 480,126 vehicles, beating expectations, while Rivian also beat and raised its full-year outlook. Combining this with a dramatically weak June jobs report — only 57,000 jobs added versus 115,000 expected — suggests the Fed is now much less likely to raise interest rates. Lower-for-longer rates are a direct tailwind for auto demand because they keep financing costs down for consumers. Together, better-than-feared deliveries and a dovish Fed surprise create a positive fundamental and macro setup for EV stocks in the near term.
Strategy approach
Build a 30-day momentum strategy on TSLA and RIVN. Enter long when the stock closes up >3% on the delivery-beat day AND the 10-year Treasury yield (TNX) drops >2% on the same session (signaling rate-hike expectations fading). Hold for 15 trading days with a 7% trailing stop.