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Public trading strategy

July's inflation data perfectly matched economist expectations, leading the mark

Created

Thesis

July's inflation data perfectly matched economist expectations, leading the market to price in a 60% chance that the Federal Reserve pauses rate hikes in September. When the Fed stops raising rates, bond yields drop, which makes non-yielding assets like gold much more attractive since they don't pay interest. This calm inflation environment also encourages investors to take on more risk, setting up a perfect tailwind for Bitcoin to push through the $63,000 to $64,000 range it has been wrestling with.

Markets and timeframes

Entry and exit at a glance

These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.

  • Entry: EMA/MACD/ADX/RSI Crossover Long (BTC@1d) (4 conditions)
  • Entry: EMA/MACD/ADX/RSI Crossover Long (GLD@1d) (4 conditions)
  • Entry: EMA/MACD/ADX/RSI Crossover Long (BTC@1d) (4 conditions)
  • Entry: EMA/MACD/ADX/RSI Crossover Long (GLD@1d) (4 conditions)
  • Entry: Long Entry Signal (BTC@1d) (2 conditions)
  • Entry: Long Entry Signal (GLD@1d) (2 conditions)
  • Exit: MACD Crosses Below Exit (BTC@1d) (3 conditions)
  • Exit: MACD Crosses Below Exit (GLD@1d) (3 conditions)
  • Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (BTC@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (GLD@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (BTC@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (GLD@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: Stop Loss at 2.5% (1 condition)
  • Exit: Take Profit at 5.0% (1 condition)

Shared strategy rules

Rule configuration

{
  "data_dependencies": [
    {
      "symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:GLD",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    }
  ],
  "entry_rules": [
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 9
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 21
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "histogram",
            "indicator": {
              "fast": 12,
              "name": "macd",
              "signal": 9,
              "slow": 26
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 0
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 25
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 50
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_btc",
      "name": "EMA/MACD/ADX/RSI Crossover Long (BTC@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:GLD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 9
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:GLD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 21
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:GLD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "histogram",
            "indicator": {
              "fast": 12,
              "name": "macd",
              "signal": 9,
              "slow": 26
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 0
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:GLD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 25
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:GLD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 50
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_gld",
      "name": "EMA/MACD/ADX/RSI Crossover Long (GLD@1d)",
      "priority": 2,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:GLD"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 9
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 21
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "histogram",
            "indicator": {
              "fast": 12,
              "name": "macd",
              "signal": 9,
              "slow": 26
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 0
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 25
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 50
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_2_btc",
      "name": "EMA/MACD/ADX/RSI Crossover Long (BTC@1d)",
      "priority": 2,
      "trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:GLD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 9
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:GLD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 21
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:GLD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "histogram",
            "indicator": {
              "fast": 12,
              "name": "macd",
              "signal": 9,
              "slow": 26
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 0
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:GLD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 25
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:GLD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 50
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_2_gld",
      "name": "EMA/MACD/ADX/RSI Crossover Long (GLD@1d)",
      "priority": 3,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:GLD"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "low",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 618,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 618,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_3_btc",
      "name": "Long Entry Signal (BTC@1d)",
      "priority": 2,
      "trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:GLD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "low",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:GLD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 618,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:GLD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:GLD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 618,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_3_gld",
      "name": "Long Entry Signal (GLD@1d)",
      "priority": 3,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:GLD"
    }
  ],
  "exit_rules": [
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "line",
            "indicator": {
              "fast": 12,
              "name": "macd",
              "signal": 9,
              "slow": 26
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_below",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 0
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 75
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "holding_period_bars",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 60
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_1_btc",
      "name": "MACD Crosses Below Exit (BTC@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "purpose": "signal",
      "target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:GLD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "line",
            "indicator": {
              "fast": 12,
              "name": "macd",
              "signal": 9,
              "slow": 26
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_below",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 0
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:GLD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 75
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "holding_period_bars",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 60
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_1_gld",
      "name": "MACD Crosses Below Exit (GLD@1d)",
      "priority": 2,
      "purpose": "signal",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:GLD"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "resistance_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2_btc",
      "name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (BTC@1d)",
      "priority": 96,
      "purpose": "take_profit",
      "target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:GLD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "resistance_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2_gld",
      "name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (GLD@1d)",
      "priority": 97,
      "purpose": "take_profit",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:GLD"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 786,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_3_btc",
      "name": "SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (BTC@1d)",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:GLD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:GLD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 786,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_3_gld",
      "name": "SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (GLD@1d)",
      "priority": 101,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:GLD"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": -2.5044
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_4",
      "name": "Stop Loss at 2.5%",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "stop_loss"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 5.0088
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_5",
      "name": "Take Profit at 5.0%",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "take_profit"
    }
  ],
  "position_sizing": {
    "max_position_percent": 25,
    "method": {
      "fib_stop_ratio": 786,
      "risk_percent": 2.5044,
      "type": "fixed_risk"
    },
    "min_position_value": 100
  },
  "trigger_timeframe": "1d",
  "version": 1
}

Indicator configuration

{
  "indicators": [
    {
      "name": "ema",
      "period": 9
    },
    {
      "name": "ema",
      "period": 21
    },
    {
      "fast": 12,
      "name": "macd",
      "signal": 9,
      "slow": 26
    },
    {
      "name": "adx",
      "period": 14
    },
    {
      "name": "rsi",
      "period": 14
    },
    {
      "name": "ema",
      "period": 9
    },
    {
      "name": "ema",
      "period": 21
    },
    {
      "fast": 12,
      "name": "macd",
      "signal": 9,
      "slow": 26
    },
    {
      "name": "adx",
      "period": 14
    },
    {
      "name": "rsi",
      "period": 14
    }
  ]
}

Parsed strategy

{
  "data_dependencies": [
    {
      "symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:GLD",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    }
  ],
  "entry_rules": [
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 9
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 21
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "histogram",
            "indicator": {
              "fast": 12,
              "name": "macd",
              "signal": 9,
              "slow": 26
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 0
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 25
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 50
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_btc",
      "name": "EMA/MACD/ADX/RSI Crossover Long (BTC@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:GLD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 9
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:GLD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 21
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:GLD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "histogram",
            "indicator": {
              "fast": 12,
              "name": "macd",
              "signal": 9,
              "slow": 26
            },
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      ],
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      "purpose": "stop_loss"
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      "enabled": true,
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      "name": "Take Profit at 5.0%",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "take_profit"
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}

Strategy instructions

Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'July's inflation data perfectly matched economist expectations, leading the market to price in a 60% chance that the Federal Reserve pauses rate hikes in September. When the Fed stops raising rates, bond yields drop, which makes non-yielding assets like g'. Thesis: July's inflation data perfectly matched economist expectations, leading the market to price in a 60% chance that the Federal Reserve pauses rate hikes in September. When the Fed stops raising rates, bond yields drop, which makes non-yielding assets like gold much more attractive since they don't pay interest. This calm inflation environment also encourages investors to take on more risk, setting up a perfect tailwind for Bitcoin to push through the $63,000 to $64,000 range it has been wrestling with.

Performance

No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.

What this public preview can establish

  • The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
  • Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
  • No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.

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