Iran peace deal opens oil shipping lanes — short oil as prices slump
Created
Thesis
Oil prices had been artificially inflated by the geopolitical risk of a war blocking the world's most important shipping lane. With that lane reopening and oil flowing freely again, that risk premium is evaporating and prices have to adjust lower to match the new reality of ample supply. We want to bet against oil prices by shorting them as long as the recent downward trend holds.
Strategy approach
Build a trend-following short strategy on USOIL using the Daily timeframe. Enter short when the 9-day EMA crosses below the 21-day EMA. Exit the trade if the 9-day EMA crosses back above the 21-day EMA. Use a 5% stop loss to protect against a sudden reversal.
Markets and timeframes
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- No inspectable rule definition is included in this public preview. Do not infer a trigger from the thesis or approach.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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