Public trading strategy
HYG Confirmed Breakdown Short (Credit Stress) Strategy
Created
Thesis
Global bond yields are testing 4% for the first time since 2007 and the 30-year US yield is at its highest since 2004, which raises the cost of refinancing for indebted companies. Goldman's credit team says the wave of junk-bond supply is overwhelming buyers and pushing risk premiums to five-month highs — a sign investors are demanding more protection just as money gets more expensive. When the 'extra pay' for holding risky corporate debt widens while base rates climb, high-yield bonds tend to underperform, and that pressure builds over weeks rather than days. Shorting a diversified high-yield ETF captures this stress without betting on any single company.
Strategy approach
Global bond yields are testing 4% for the first time since 2007 and the 30-year US yield is at its highest since 2004, which raises the cost of refinancing for indebted companies. Goldman's credit team says the wave of junk-bond supply is overwhelming buyers and pushing risk premiums to five-month highs — a sign investors are demanding more protection just as money gets more expensive. When the 'extra pay' for holding risky corporate debt widens while base rates climb, high-yield bonds tend to underperform, and that pressure builds over weeks rather than days. Shorting a diversified high-yield ETF captures this stress without betting on any single company. Decision analysis profile: value. Required dimensions: valuation_method, valuation_sensitivity, business_economics, cash_quality,…
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
HYG · 1d
1 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price crossed below Donchian (20) — near
- EMA (50) below EMA (100) — met
- Price crossed above Donchian (20) — near
TLT · 1d
1 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price crossed below Donchian (20) — near
- EMA (50) below EMA (100) — met
- Price crossed above Donchian (20) — near
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Confirmed Range Breakdown Short (HYG@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: Confirmed Range Breakdown Short (TLT@1d) (3 conditions)
- Exit: Cover on Reclaimed Range Floor (HYG@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Cover on Reclaimed Range Floor (TLT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Time Stop at 90 Bars (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.9% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.7% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 100
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_hyg",
"name": "Confirmed Range Breakdown Short (HYG@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:HYG"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 100
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_tlt",
"name": "Confirmed Range Breakdown Short (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_hyg",
"name": "Cover on Reclaimed Range Floor (HYG@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:HYG"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_tlt",
"name": "Cover on Reclaimed Range Floor (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 90
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_time",
"name": "Time Stop at 90 Bars",
"priority": 50,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.85
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_stop",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.9%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.7
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_profit",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.7%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 1,
"risk_percent": 2.85,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 100
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 100
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 50
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 100
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_hyg",
"name": "Confirmed Range Breakdown Short (HYG@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:HYG"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 100
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_tlt",
"name": "Confirmed Range Breakdown Short (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_hyg",
"name": "Cover on Reclaimed Range Floor (HYG@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:HYG"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_tlt",
"name": "Cover on Reclaimed Range Floor (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 90
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_time",
"name": "Time Stop at 90 Bars",
"priority": 50,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.85
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_stop",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.9%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.7
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_profit",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.7%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 1,
"risk_percent": 2.85,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Global bond yields are testing 4% for the first time since 2007 and the 30-year US yield is at its highest since 2004, which raises the cost of refinancing for indebted companies. Goldman's credit team says the wave of junk-bond supply is overwhelming buy'. Thesis: Global bond yields are testing 4% for the first time since 2007 and the 30-year US yield is at its highest since 2004, which raises the cost of refinancing for indebted companies. Goldman's credit team says the wave of junk-bond supply is overwhelming buyers and pushing risk premiums to five-month highs — a sign investors are demanding more protection just as money gets more expensive. When the 'extra pay' for holding risky corporate debt widens while base rates climb, high-yield bonds tend to underperform, and that pressure builds over weeks rather than days. Shorting a diversified high-yield ETF captures this stress without betting on any single company.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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