Public trading strategy
Chip stock honeymoon is over as AI spending doubts hit — short the semiconductor
Created
Thesis
Goldman Sachs argues that massive capital spending is powering the bull market, which drove record inflows into chips during Q2. However, this exact spending is now coming under severe scrutiny, leading to $2.3 trillion in losses for mega-cap tech in June. As that skepticism peaks, the chip sector is rolling over fast, with Samsung and SK Hynix tumbling over 7% and US memory makers like Micron wiping out $200 billion in value in a single day. The combination of a record-breaking quarter and sudden AI capacity gluttony fears creates a high-risk momentum unwind for Q3.
Strategy approach
Build a mean-reversion/short momentum strategy on semiconductor ETFs. Enter short SOX or SMH on D1 timeframe when the ETF drops 5% from its 10-day high while trading volume exceeds the 20-day average. Exit the short position if the ETF closes above its 5-day high, or hold for a maximum of 15 trading days.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
AMD · 1d
0 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- ROC (10) below -5 — far
- OBV above 0 — unknown
- Price above Donchian (5) — met
- ADX (14) below 20 — far
MU · 1d
0 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- ROC (10) below -5 — far
- OBV above 0 — unknown
- Price above Donchian (5) — met
- ADX (14) below 20 — met
SMH · 1d
0 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- ROC (10) below -5 — far
- OBV above 0 — unknown
- Price above Donchian (5) — met
- ADX (14) below 20 — far
SOXX · 1d
0 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- ROC (10) below -5 — far
- OBV above 0 — unknown
- Price above Donchian (5) — met
- ADX (14) below 20 — far
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: ROC/OBV Signal Long (AMD@1d) (3 conditions)
- Exit: ADX Threshold Exit (AMD@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.4% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.8% (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (AMD@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (AMD@1d) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -5
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "obv"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "ROC/OBV Signal Long (AMD@1d)",
"priority": 1
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 5
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "ADX Threshold Exit (AMD@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.4211666666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.4%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.842333333333333
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.8%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"condition_tree": {
"children": [
{
"cond": {
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
"op": "cond"
},
{
"cond": {
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
},
"op": "cond"
}
],
"op": "any"
},
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (AMD@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 382,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (AMD@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 382,
"risk_percent": 2.4211666666666667,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "obv"
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 5
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -5
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "obv"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "ROC/OBV Signal Long (AMD@1d)",
"priority": 1
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 5
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "ADX Threshold Exit (AMD@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.4211666666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.4%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.842333333333333
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.8%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"condition_tree": {
"children": [
{
"cond": {
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
"op": "cond"
},
{
"cond": {
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
},
"op": "cond"
}
],
"op": "any"
},
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (AMD@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 382,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (AMD@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 382,
"risk_percent": 2.4211666666666667,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Chip stock honeymoon is over as AI spending doubts hit — short the semiconductor breakout'. Thesis: Goldman Sachs argues that massive capital spending is powering the bull market, which drove record inflows into chips during Q2. However, this exact spending is now coming under severe scrutiny, leading to $2.3 trillion in losses for mega-cap tech in June. As that skepticism peaks, the chip sector is rolling over fast, with Samsung and SK Hynix tumbling over 7% and US memory makers like Micron wiping out $200 billion in value in a single day. The combination of a record-breaking quarter and sudden AI capacity gluttony fears creates a high-risk momentum unwind for Q3.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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