AI spending hangover meets deflationary oil — fade the S&P 500 rally as mega-cap
Thesis
This thesis synthesizes the $2.3 trillion mega-cap wipeout with the sudden drop in oil prices and Goldman's defense of capital spending. While Goldman claims AI spending is fueling a generational bull market, the market is voting with its feet and punishing that exact spending. Combine this with deflationary pressures from falling oil, and the near-term direction for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq looks lower.
Strategy approach
Create a strategy that enters short QQQ on D1 when the RSI(14) crosses below 50 and the MACD histogram is negative. Exit when the RSI crosses back above 60, or after a fixed 10-day holding period. Filter: only take trades when XLE (Energy sector ETF) is also trending down (below its 50-day SMA) to confirm the deflationary/risk-off macro backdrop.