War and export bans squeeze fuel supply — go long US oil refiners
Created
Thesis
A combination of military escalation in the Middle East and a sudden Russian export ban is creating a desperate global scramble for fuel. Reuters reports that US diesel futures just posted their biggest daily jump in four years after Russia halted exports. Meanwhile, Bloomberg notes that US military strikes against Iran are threatening to choke off shipping lanes, and the US has revoked Iran's license to sell oil globally. When the supply of fuel drops dramatically but demand stays steady, the companies that actually process and refine that fuel see their profit margins explode. Going long the companies that make diesel and gasoline is the cleanest way to trade this supply crunch.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters long USO on D1 when oil prices make a 10-day high and refine crack spreads (measured via the spread between ULSD and WTI crude oil futures) widen to a 20-day high. Hold for 14 days and exit if the RSI(14) crosses below 50 or if price hits a 5% trailing stop.
Markets and timeframes
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- No inspectable rule definition is included in this public preview. Do not infer a trigger from the thesis or approach.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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