Public trading strategy
Oil producers drowning in supply while U.S. jobs dry up — short energy stocks
Thesis
Oil prices are plunging because a peace deal between the US and Iran is unleashing a wave of new supply. The CEO of TotalEnergies confirms that Middle East producers are 'desperate to sell' stockpiled oil, which is swamping the market. Worse, this oversupply is hitting just as the U.S. economy added a dismal 57,000 jobs, signaling weakening consumer demand for gasoline and travel. A toxic combination of spiking supply and crashing demand points directly to lower energy stock prices.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters short XLE on D1 when WTI crude oil makes a 20-day low and the US Unemployment Rate ticks higher. Exit on a 10% bounce in WTI crude or a 21-day max hold, with a 6% stop loss.