Public trading strategy
Novartis fell the most in its history after a third clinical-trial setback in a
Created
Thesis
Novartis fell the most in its history after a third clinical-trial setback in a single week — a pattern that usually means the pipeline, not one drug, is the problem. Momentum in single names after cluster failures tends to persist as analysts cut estimates and remaining pipeline assets get written down. The rest of the market is distracted by oil and rate drama, so there's no broad-market relief rally likely to lift a name with its own fundamental crisis. Shorting into persistent, fundamental bad news offers a cleaner trend than fading it.
Strategy approach
Novartis fell the most in its history after a third clinical-trial setback in a single week — a pattern that usually means the pipeline, not one drug, is the problem. Momentum in single names after cluster failures tends to persist as analysts cut estimates and remaining pipeline assets get written down. The rest of the market is distracted by oil and rate drama, so there's no broad-market relief rally likely to lift a name with its own fundamental crisis. Shorting into persistent, fundamental bad news offers a cleaner trend than fading it. Decision analysis profile: near_term. Required dimensions: as_of_session, catalyst_timing, expectations_priced_in, price_volume, liquidity_spread_volatility, dilution_capital_allocation, downside, actionability.
Markets and timeframes
NVS1D
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
NVS · 1d
4 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below EMA (20) — met
- RSI (14) below 50 — met
- MACD (12,26,9) below MACD (12,26,9) — met
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- Price above EMA (20) — far
- RSI (14) above 55 — far
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: EMA/RSI/MACD/ADX Signal Long (NVS@1d) (4 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (NVS@1d) (3 conditions)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (NVS@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (NVS@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.7% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.3% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:NVS",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "EMA/RSI/MACD/ADX Signal Long (NVS@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:NVS"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 55
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (NVS@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (NVS@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:NVS"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 382,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (NVS@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:NVS"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.6555999999999997
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.7%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.3111999999999995
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.3%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 382,
"risk_percent": 2.6555999999999997,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:NVS",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "EMA/RSI/MACD/ADX Signal Long (NVS@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:NVS"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 55
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (NVS@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (NVS@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:NVS"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 382,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (NVS@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:NVS"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.6555999999999997
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.7%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.3111999999999995
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.3%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 382,
"risk_percent": 2.6555999999999997,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Novartis fell the most in its history after a third clinical-trial setback in a single week — a pattern that usually means the pipeline, not one drug, is the problem. Momentum in single names after cluster failures tends to persist as analysts cut estimat'. Thesis: Novartis fell the most in its history after a third clinical-trial setback in a single week — a pattern that usually means the pipeline, not one drug, is the problem. Momentum in single names after cluster failures tends to persist as analysts cut estimates and remaining pipeline assets get written down. The rest of the market is distracted by oil and rate drama, so there's no broad-market relief rally likely to lift a name with its own fundamental crisis. Shorting into persistent, fundamental bad news offers a cleaner trend than fading it.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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