Bitcoin ETFs bleed $1.8B as Fed talks tough on inflation — short bitcoin proxy S
Thesis
Bitcoin is clinging to $60,000 amid massive $1.8B weekly ETF outflows as investors price in further Fed rate hikes. This relentless downward pressure is devastating for Strategy (MSTR), a software company that has essentially become a leveraged Bitcoin holding vehicle, sending its stock down for an eleventh month. With the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh sounding hawkish on inflation, the macro environment remains highly toxic for risk assets like crypto, suggesting MSTR's downward spiral will likely continue.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters short MSTR on D1 when BTC-USD closes below $60,000 and the 10-day moving average of MSCI Crypto Index ETFs (or IBIT) shows consecutive daily outflows. Exit if BTC-USD reclaimscloses above $62,000, with a 21-day max hold and a 10% stop loss.