Iran ceasefire collapses, investors flee to cash — short Bitcoin on risk-off mom
Thesis
With the Strait of Hormuz closed and US-Iran hostilities escalating, investors are rushing to safe havens like the US Dollar while dumping riskier assets. Bitcoin has been sliding toward $61,000 as the flight-to-cash accelerates. When geopolitical shocks hit and the dollar strengthens, crypto typically faces sustained selling pressure because investors deleverage and move to liquidity. This dynamic should continue to weigh on Bitcoin until there is a de-escalation in tensions.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters short BTCUSD on H4 when BTC makes a 10-day low and DXY makes a 10-day high on the same session. Exit if BTC rebounds 4% off the entry price or after a 10-day max hold, whichever comes first. Secondary confirmation: VIX > 20 at entry.