Fed forced to back off rate hikes as jobs market stumbles — accumulate Bitcoin
Thesis
The combination of a weak June jobs report and a dovish Fed has taken the pressure off risk assets. When the Bloomberg article notes that bonds are rallying on dimmed rate-hike expectations, it signals a lower-rate environment that historically benefits speculative assets like Bitcoin. We see this directly reflected in the CoinDesk article about $221 million flowing back into Bitcoin ETFs, breaking a 10-day drought. Furthermore, a weakening dollar makes alternative assets cheaper for foreign buyers. As long as rate hike fears remain off the table, Bitcoin has a clear path to recover its recent losses.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy on BTCUSD (D1). Entry: go long when the US Dollar Index (DXY) makes a 10-day low and 10-year Treasury yields drop 3 basis points in a single session (flight-to-safety confirmation). Add a secondary confirmation: enter only if IBIT or total Bitcoin ETF daily flows are positive. Exit: take profit at 6% gain, use a 5% trailing stop, with a max 14-day hold.