Public trading strategy
Fed forced to back off rate hikes as jobs market stumbles — accumulate Bitcoin
Created
Thesis
The combination of a weak June jobs report and a dovish Fed has taken the pressure off risk assets. When the Bloomberg article notes that bonds are rallying on dimmed rate-hike expectations, it signals a lower-rate environment that historically benefits speculative assets like Bitcoin. We see this directly reflected in the CoinDesk article about $221 million flowing back into Bitcoin ETFs, breaking a 10-day drought. Furthermore, a weakening dollar makes alternative assets cheaper for foreign buyers. As long as rate hike fears remain off the table, Bitcoin has a clear path to recover its recent losses.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy on BTCUSD (D1). Entry: go long when the US Dollar Index (DXY) makes a 10-day low and 10-year Treasury yields drop 3 basis points in a single session (flight-to-safety confirmation). Add a secondary confirmation: enter only if IBIT or total Bitcoin ETF daily flows are positive. Exit: take profit at 6% gain, use a 5% trailing stop, with a max 14-day hold.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
BTC · 1d
3 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- RSI (14) below 65 — met
- Donchian (10) above 1 — met
- Price above EMA (20) — met
IBIT · 1d
2 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- RSI (14) below 65 — near
- Donchian (10) above 1 — met
- Price above EMA (20) — met
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: RSI/DONCHIAN/EMA Crossover Long (BTC@1d) (4 conditions)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (BTC@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (BTC@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.6% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.2% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 65
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 1
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "RSI/DONCHIAN/EMA Crossover Long (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "BTC"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.5767333333333333
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.153466666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.2%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.5767333333333333,
"support_stop_rank": 1,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 65
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 1
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "RSI/DONCHIAN/EMA Crossover Long (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "BTC"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.5767333333333333
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.153466666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.2%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.5767333333333333,
"support_stop_rank": 1,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Fed forced to back off rate hikes as jobs market stumbles — accumulate Bitcoin'. Thesis: The combination of a weak June jobs report and a dovish Fed has taken the pressure off risk assets. When the Bloomberg article notes that bonds are rallying on dimmed rate-hike expectations, it signals a lower-rate environment that historically benefits speculative assets like Bitcoin. We see this directly reflected in the CoinDesk article about $221 million flowing back into Bitcoin ETFs, breaking a 10-day drought. Furthermore, a weakening dollar makes alternative assets cheaper for foreign buyers. As long as rate hike fears remain off the table, Bitcoin has a clear path to recover its recent losses.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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