Weak jobs report kills rate-hike fears — crypto relief rally has fuel to run
Thesis
The June payroll report added only 57,000 jobs — less than half the expected 115,000. This dramatically dims Fed rate-hike expectations, which reduces upward pressure on the dollar and is historically bullish for risk assets like crypto. Simultaneously, US Bitcoin ETFs broke a 10-day outflow streak with $222 million in inflows, and Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) announced changes to its Bitcoin plan — both signals that institutional dip-buyers are stepping back in. The combination of dovish macro data and renewed institutional inflows creates a favorable setup for Bitcoin and Bitcoin-adjacent equities.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters long BTC-USD on D1 when US nonfarm payrolls come in below 100K and spot BTC ETFs post net inflows exceeding $150 million on the same or prior day. Exit after a 21-day hold or a 7% trailing stop.