Public trading strategy
Surging rates and an AI spending revolt are crushing borrowing costs — short rat
Created
Thesis
Bond prices are plunging and borrowing costs are spiking because the economy refuses to slow down, which means the Fed cannot ride to the rescue with rate cuts. This is toxic for sectors that rely on cheap financing — particularly real estate, where high mortgage rates are actively scaring away buyers, and utilities, which carry heavy debt loads. The simultaneous market panic over runaway tech spending adds a broader risk-off pressure that pushes investors out of stocks entirely. When borrowing costs spike and market sentiment sours simultaneously, rate-sensitive sectors typically fall the hardest.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters short XLU and short XLRE on D1 when the 10-year Treasury yield (TNX) makes a 20-day high and QQQ drops >1.5% on the same day. Exit if TNX falls below its 10-day EMA or after a 21-day max hold. Use a 4% trailing stop.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
XLRE · 1d
8 of 12 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below SMA (20) — met
- RSI (14) below 45 — met
- ROC (1) below -1.5 — far
- Price below SMA (20) — met
- RSI (14) below 45 — met
- ROC (1) below -1.5 — far
- Price below SMA (20) — met
- RSI (14) below 45 — met
- ROC (1) below -1.5 — far
- Price below SMA (20) — met
- RSI (14) below 45 — met
- ROC (1) below -1.5 — far
- Price above SMA (20) — near
- Price above SMA (20) — near
XLU · 1d
4 of 12 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below SMA (20) — met
- RSI (14) below 45 — near
- ROC (1) below -1.5 — far
- Price below SMA (20) — met
- RSI (14) below 45 — near
- ROC (1) below -1.5 — far
- Price below SMA (20) — met
- RSI (14) below 45 — near
- ROC (1) below -1.5 — far
- Price below SMA (20) — met
- RSI (14) below 45 — near
- ROC (1) below -1.5 — far
- Price above SMA (20) — near
- Price above SMA (20) — near
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: SMA/RSI/ROC Crossover Long (XLU@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/RSI/ROC Crossover Long (XLRE@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/RSI/ROC Crossover Long (QQQ@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/RSI/ROC Signal Long (XLU@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/RSI/ROC Signal Long (XLRE@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/RSI/ROC Signal Long (QQQ@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: Crossover Long (XLU@1d) (1 condition)
- Entry: Crossover Long (XLRE@1d) (1 condition)
- Entry: Crossover Long (QQQ@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (XLU@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (XLRE@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (QQQ@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (XLU@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (XLRE@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (QQQ@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (XLU@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (XLRE@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (QQQ@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.0% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:XLRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -1.5
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_xlu",
"name": "SMA/RSI/ROC Crossover Long (XLU@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:XLU"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -1.5
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_xlre",
"name": "SMA/RSI/ROC Crossover Long (XLRE@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:XLRE"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -1.5
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_qqq",
"name": "SMA/RSI/ROC Crossover Long (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:QQQ"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -1.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_xlu",
"name": "SMA/RSI/ROC Signal Long (XLU@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:XLU"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -1.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_xlre",
"name": "SMA/RSI/ROC Signal Long (XLRE@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:XLRE"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -1.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_qqq",
"name": "SMA/RSI/ROC Signal Long (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:QQQ"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_xlu",
"name": "Crossover Long (XLU@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:XLU"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_xlre",
"name": "Crossover Long (XLRE@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:XLRE"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_qqq",
"name": "Crossover Long (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:QQQ"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_xlu",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (XLU@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:XLU"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_xlre",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (XLRE@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:XLRE"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_qqq",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:QQQ"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_xlu",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (XLU@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:XLU"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_xlre",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (XLRE@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:XLRE"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_qqq",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:QQQ"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_xlu",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (XLU@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:XLU"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_xlre",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (XLRE@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:XLRE"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_qqq",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 102,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:QQQ"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 1,
"risk_percent": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:XLRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -1.5
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
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],
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"method": {
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"type": "fixed_risk"
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"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Surging rates and an AI spending revolt are crushing borrowing costs — short rate-sensitive stocks'. Thesis: Bond prices are plunging and borrowing costs are spiking because the economy refuses to slow down, which means the Fed cannot ride to the rescue with rate cuts. This is toxic for sectors that rely on cheap financing — particularly real estate, where high mortgage rates are actively scaring away buyers, and utilities, which carry heavy debt loads. The simultaneous market panic over runaway tech spending adds a broader risk-off pressure that pushes investors out of stocks entirely. When borrowing costs spike and market sentiment sours simultaneously, rate-sensitive sectors typically fall the hardest.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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