Iran shuts key oil route and hedge funds are caught on the wrong side — oil sque
Created
Thesis
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20% of the world's daily oil supply, so closing it immediately threatens to squeeze global oil availability. At the same time, many large hedge funds had placed big bets that oil prices would fall, expecting a peace deal to hold. Now that conflict has flared up again, those bearish bets could quickly unwind as funds are forced to buy oil contracts to cover their positions, creating a potential short squeeze that drives prices even higher.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters long USO on D1 when price breaks above the upper Bollinger Band (20, 2) and RSI(14) > 60. Also enter long XOM and CVX on similar breakout conditions. Exit conditions: 8% trailing stop, or exit when price closes below the 20-day SMA. Max hold time: 21 days.
Markets and timeframes
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- No inspectable rule definition is included in this public preview. Do not infer a trigger from the thesis or approach.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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