War premium returns to oil as Iran ceasefire ends — ride the energy surge
Created
Thesis
The U.S. military's recent strikes on over 80 Iranian targets and the revocation of their oil sales waiver directly threatens global supply. At the exact same time, shipping traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz has slowed to a trickle as tanker owners fear for their vessels. With Trump declaring the ceasefire 'over' and the stock market tumbling as investors run from risk, the combination of an actual supply disruption and rising fear creates a perfect storm for oil prices to push higher as a safe-haven and necessity asset.
Strategy approach
Build a momentum strategy on D1 timeframe that enters long United States Oil Fund (USO) when crude oil makes a 10-day high and trading volume spikes 50% above its 30-day average. Hold until oil prices make a 5-day low or for a maximum of 20 trading days.
Markets and timeframes
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- No inspectable rule definition is included in this public preview. Do not infer a trigger from the thesis or approach.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
Explore
How CommonQuant researches and tests strategies · Public paper-trading record and its limits · Discover public strategies