Hot inflation plus massive crypto options expiry = pressure on Bitcoin — short t

Thesis

The latest inflation reading showed prices rising at the fastest pace in three years, keeping pressure on the Federal Reserve. High interest rates make safe assets like government bonds more attractive, pulling money away from speculative assets like crypto. With Bitcoin bleeding out and a massive $10.6 billion options expiry looming, the structural support is weakening.

Strategy approach

Build a rule-based strategy that enters short BTC-USD on H4 when it touches $61,500 with declining RSI (divergence), while the US 2-Year Treasury Yield is rising. Target $57,000 and use a 4% stop loss above entry.

Markets and timeframes

What this public preview can establish

• The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
• No inspectable rule definition is included in this public preview. Do not infer a trigger from the thesis or approach.
• No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.

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