Fed threatens rate hikes, crypto takes a hit — short Bitcoin breakdown

Thesis

When the Federal Reserve threatens to raise interest rates, investors tend to pull their money out of highly speculative assets like cryptocurrencies because safe government bonds suddenly start paying higher, guaranteed returns. This shift away from risk is dragging Bitcoin down, and fears over the unraveling of a major crypto investment firm's funding model are adding extra panic to the market. With rate hike bets surging and spot crypto ETFs seeing massive outflows, the selling pressure on Bitcoin is likely to continue in the short term.

Strategy approach

Build a rule-based strategy that enters short BTCUSDT on the 4-hour timeframe when the price closes below the 50-period simple moving average and RSI(14) crosses below 50. Exit the trade if RSI crosses back above 55 or if a 4% stop loss is hit. Max hold of 14 days.

Markets and timeframes

What this public preview can establish

• The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
• No inspectable rule definition is included in this public preview. Do not infer a trigger from the thesis or approach.
• No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.

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