Public trading strategy
Norway's $2 trillion fund proposing deep cuts to Treasury holdings removes one o
Created
Thesis
Norway's $2 trillion fund proposing deep cuts to Treasury holdings removes one of the market's steadiest big buyers, and less demand means bond prices fall and yields rise. The blowout jobs report independently pushed yields up by reviving fears the Fed keeps rates high, and the week's bond volatility ended with yields still elevated near where they started. Two unrelated forces — a structural seller stepping back and a hot economy — point the same direction for long-dated bonds, making short long-duration Treasury exposure a cleaner setup than either story alone.
Strategy approach
Norway's $2 trillion fund proposing deep cuts to Treasury holdings removes one of the market's steadiest big buyers, and less demand means bond prices fall and yields rise. The blowout jobs report independently pushed yields up by reviving fears the Fed keeps rates high, and the week's bond volatility ended with yields still elevated near where they started. Two unrelated forces — a structural seller stepping back and a hot economy — point the same direction for long-dated bonds, making short long-duration Treasury exposure a cleaner setup than either story alone. Decision analysis profile: near_term. Required dimensions: as_of_session, catalyst_timing, expectations_priced_in, price_volume, liquidity_spread_volatility, dilution_capital_allocation, downside, actionability.
Markets and timeframes
TLT1D
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
TLT · 1d
2 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price crossed below Donchian (20) — near
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- Price below EMA (50) — met
- Price crossed above Donchian (20) — near
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: DONCHIAN/ADX/EMA Crossover Long (TLT@1d) (4 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (TLT@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (TLT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (TLT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (TLT@1d) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ADX/EMA Crossover Long (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "middle",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 2,
"risk_percent": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ADX/EMA Crossover Long (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "middle",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 2,
"risk_percent": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Norway's $2 trillion fund proposing deep cuts to Treasury holdings removes one of the market's steadiest big buyers, and less demand means bond prices fall and yields rise. The blowout jobs report independently pushed yields up by reviving fears the Fed k'. Thesis: Norway's $2 trillion fund proposing deep cuts to Treasury holdings removes one of the market's steadiest big buyers, and less demand means bond prices fall and yields rise. The blowout jobs report independently pushed yields up by reviving fears the Fed keeps rates high, and the week's bond volatility ended with yields still elevated near where they started. Two unrelated forces — a structural seller stepping back and a hot economy — point the same direction for long-dated bonds, making short long-duration Treasury exposure a cleaner setup than either story alone.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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