Public trading strategy
Iran shuts critical oil route — momentum play on oil ETFs
Thesis
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly a fifth of the world's daily oil supply. When a major supplier threatens to close the route, energy markets react swiftly to price in potential shortages. This type of sudden geopolitical premium creates a momentum spike in oil prices, and the companies that produce and refine oil tend to ride that wave higher until the situation de-escalates.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters long USO on D1 when the fund closes up >3% from the prior day on volume exceeding the 20-day average. Exit on a 10% trailing stop or after a 21-day max hold.