Weak jobs + institutional buying = crypto comeback — ride the Bitcoin and Ether
Thesis
The June jobs report was a shocker — only 57,000 jobs added versus 115,000 expected — which immediately scaled back fears of a Fed rate hike. When the Fed is less likely to raise rates, risk assets like crypto tend to rally because borrowing costs stay lower. At the same time, Bitcoin ETFs just broke a 10-day bleeding streak with a massive $222 million inflow day, showing that big money is stepping back in. Layer on Fed Chair Warsh's comments about inflation risks coming down and the crypto market is getting a green light from both macro policy and institutional flows. Bitcoin's push above $60,000 with ETF buying behind it suggests this is a coordinated relief rally rather than a flash in the pan.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters long BTC-USD on D1 when the prior day's candle closes above its 10-day high AND US 10-year Treasury yields have fallen over the prior 3 sessions. Exit on a 6% trailing stop or after a 14-day max hold. Alternatively, if IBIT is available, use the same conditions on IBIT with a 5% trailing stop.