Public trading strategy
Bitcoin has already broken out to a three-month high, which tells you buyers are
Created
Thesis
Bitcoin has already broken out to a three-month high, which tells you buyers are back in control. Bernstein's $125,000 target by late 2026 is based on the idea that the current cycle still has room to run, with much bigger targets after that. Arthur Hayes adds a specific fuel source: Treasury buybacks effectively inject liquidity into the financial system, and that extra money historically flows into Bitcoin. When a momentum breakout lines up with both institutional forecasts and a liquidity tailwind, the trade is to ride the trend rather than chase tops.
Strategy approach
Bitcoin has already broken out to a three-month high, which tells you buyers are back in control. Bernstein's $125,000 target by late 2026 is based on the idea that the current cycle still has room to run, with much bigger targets after that. Arthur Hayes adds a specific fuel source: Treasury buybacks effectively inject liquidity into the financial system, and that extra money historically flows into Bitcoin. When a momentum breakout lines up with both institutional forecasts and a liquidity tailwind, the trade is to ride the trend rather than chase tops. Decision analysis profile: value. Required dimensions: valuation_method, valuation_sensitivity, business_economics, cash_quality, balance_sheet_leverage, dilution_capital_allocation, moat, catalysts, counterevidence, invalidation.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
BTC · 1d
4 of 6 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price above SMA (50) — met
- SMA (50) above SMA (100) — near
- RSI (14) above 50 — met
- RSI (14) below 70 — far
- MACD (12,26,9) above 0 — met
- Price above Bollinger (20) — met
- Price below Bollinger (20) — far
- MACD (12,26,9) crossed below 0 — far
IBIT · 1d
4 of 6 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price above SMA (50) — met
- SMA (50) above SMA (100) — far
- RSI (14) above 50 — met
- RSI (14) below 70 — far
- MACD (12,26,9) above 0 — met
- Price above Bollinger (20) — met
- Price below Bollinger (20) — far
- MACD (12,26,9) crossed below 0 — far
MSTR · 1d
4 of 6 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price above SMA (50) — met
- SMA (50) above SMA (100) — far
- RSI (14) above 50 — met
- RSI (14) below 70 — far
- MACD (12,26,9) above 0 — met
- Price above Bollinger (20) — met
- Price below Bollinger (20) — far
- MACD (12,26,9) crossed below 0 — far
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Fade the BTC Momentum Breakout: Short Above Upper Band (BTC@1d) (6 conditions)
- Exit: Breakout Failure: Close Back Below Band Middle (BTC@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Early Momentum Unwind Within 10 Bars (BTC@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Tail-Move Stop at 5% (1 condition)
- Exit: Short Invalidation: Close at Fib Extension 161.8% (BTC@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Time Stop at 90 Bars (BTC@1d) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 100
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 70
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "Fade the BTC Momentum Breakout: Short Above Upper Band (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "middle",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_fade_success",
"name": "Breakout Failure: Close Back Below Band Middle (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 10
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1a_momentum_unwind",
"name": "Early Momentum Unwind Within 10 Bars (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_tail_stop",
"name": "Tail-Move Stop at 5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1618,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_short_invalidation",
"name": "Short Invalidation: Close at Fib Extension 161.8% (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 95,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 90
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_time_stop",
"name": "Time Stop at 90 Bars (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 110,
"purpose": "signal"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 786,
"risk_percent": 2.3788333333333336,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 3
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 100
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 100
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 100
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 100
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 70
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "Fade the BTC Momentum Breakout: Short Above Upper Band (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "middle",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_fade_success",
"name": "Breakout Failure: Close Back Below Band Middle (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 10
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1a_momentum_unwind",
"name": "Early Momentum Unwind Within 10 Bars (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_tail_stop",
"name": "Tail-Move Stop at 5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1618,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_short_invalidation",
"name": "Short Invalidation: Close at Fib Extension 161.8% (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 95,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 90
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_time_stop",
"name": "Time Stop at 90 Bars (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 110,
"purpose": "signal"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 786,
"risk_percent": 2.3788333333333336,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 3
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Bitcoin has already broken out to a three-month high, which tells you buyers are back in control. Bernstein's $125,000 target by late 2026 is based on the idea that the current cycle still has room to run, with much bigger targets after that. Arthur Hayes'. Thesis: Bitcoin has already broken out to a three-month high, which tells you buyers are back in control. Bernstein's $125,000 target by late 2026 is based on the idea that the current cycle still has room to run, with much bigger targets after that. Arthur Hayes adds a specific fuel source: Treasury buybacks effectively inject liquidity into the financial system, and that extra money historically flows into Bitcoin. When a momentum breakout lines up with both institutional forecasts and a liquidity tailwind, the trade is to ride the trend rather than chase tops.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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