Weak jobs report kills rate-hike fears — Bitcoin breaks back above $60K
Thesis
Bitcoin had been trapped in a downtrend as investors worried the Federal Reserve would keep hiking interest rates to fight inflation. However, the June jobs report came in at just 57,000 new jobs — far below expectations — which immediately cooled rate hike fears. As noted in the jobs data article, this weak report 'eased rate hike fears' and prompted capital to look for opportunities in Bitcoin. We can connect this to the BTC price action: Bitcoin successfully bounced from the $60K level and held $61K, suggesting it found a bottom now that the macroeconomic headwind of higher rates has shifted. With the Fed less likely to tighten further, risk assets like Bitcoin have a clear runway to recover recent losses.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters long BTCUSD on H4 when price holds above a rising 20-period EMA and the previous daily candle closed green after a macro jobs report release. Exit if price closes below the 20-period EMA or after a 7-day max hold.