Public trading strategy
Consumer confidence falling to its worst reading since the start of the year is
Created
Thesis
Consumer confidence falling to its worst reading since the start of the year is a direct warning for companies that depend on shoppers spending freely — retailers, restaurants, travel. When households feel shaky about jobs, they cut discretionary purchases first while still buying staples like groceries and toothpaste. Options desks are also showing a bump in expected volatility around the November midterms, meaning pros are already bracing for a bumpier, more nervous market. Buying the boring staples while shorting the fun stuff is the classic way to position for a weaker, anxious consumer.
Strategy approach
Consumer confidence falling to its worst reading since the start of the year is a direct warning for companies that depend on shoppers spending freely — retailers, restaurants, travel. When households feel shaky about jobs, they cut discretionary purchases first while still buying staples like groceries and toothpaste. Options desks are also showing a bump in expected volatility around the November midterms, meaning pros are already bracing for a bumpier, more nervous market. Buying the boring staples while shorting the fun stuff is the classic way to position for a weaker, anxious consumer. Decision analysis profile: leveraged. Required dimensions: company_view, instrument_view, contract_identity, event_expiry_timing, implied_volatility_expected_move, theta, breakeven_payoff,…
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
SPY · 1d
3 of 12 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price crossed below EMA (50) — near
- MACD (12,26,9) below 0 — far
- RSI (14) below 45 — far
- Price above EMA (50) — met
- Price crossed above EMA (50) — near
- MACD (12,26,9) below 0 — far
- RSI (14) below 45 — far
- Price above EMA (50) — met
- Price crossed above EMA (50) — near
- MACD (12,26,9) below 0 — far
- RSI (14) below 45 — far
- Price above EMA (50) — met
- Price crossed above EMA (50) — near
- Price crossed below EMA (50) — near
XLP · 1d
3 of 12 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price crossed below EMA (50) — near
- MACD (12,26,9) below 0 — near
- RSI (14) below 45 — far
- Price above EMA (50) — met
- Price crossed above EMA (50) — near
- MACD (12,26,9) below 0 — near
- RSI (14) below 45 — far
- Price above EMA (50) — met
- Price crossed above EMA (50) — near
- MACD (12,26,9) below 0 — near
- RSI (14) below 45 — far
- Price above EMA (50) — met
- Price crossed above EMA (50) — near
- Price crossed below EMA (50) — near
XLY · 1d
3 of 12 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price crossed below EMA (50) — near
- MACD (12,26,9) below 0 — far
- RSI (14) below 45 — far
- Price above EMA (50) — met
- Price crossed above EMA (50) — near
- MACD (12,26,9) below 0 — far
- RSI (14) below 45 — far
- Price above EMA (50) — met
- Price crossed above EMA (50) — near
- MACD (12,26,9) below 0 — far
- RSI (14) below 45 — far
- Price above EMA (50) — met
- Price crossed above EMA (50) — near
- Price crossed below EMA (50) — near
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: EMA/MACD/RSI Crossover Short (XLY@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: EMA/MACD/RSI Crossover Long (XLP@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: EMA/MACD/RSI Crossover Long (SPY@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: Crossover Long (XLP@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (XLP/XLY@1d) (3 conditions)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (XLY@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (XLY@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.6% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.2% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:XLP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "EMA/MACD/RSI Crossover Short (XLY@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:XLY"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2",
"name": "EMA/MACD/RSI Crossover Long (XLP@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:XLP"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3",
"name": "EMA/MACD/RSI Crossover Long (SPY@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:SPY"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_4",
"name": "Crossover Long (XLP@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:XLP"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (XLP/XLY@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (XLY@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:XLY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 382,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (XLY@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:XLY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.5833333333333335
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.166666666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.2%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 382,
"risk_percent": 2.5833333333333335,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:XLP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "EMA/MACD/RSI Crossover Short (XLY@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:XLY"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2",
"name": "EMA/MACD/RSI Crossover Long (XLP@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:XLP"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3",
"name": "EMA/MACD/RSI Crossover Long (SPY@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:SPY"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_4",
"name": "Crossover Long (XLP@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:XLP"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (XLP/XLY@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (XLY@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:XLY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 382,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (XLY@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:XLY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.5833333333333335
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.166666666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.2%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 382,
"risk_percent": 2.5833333333333335,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Consumer confidence falling to its worst reading since the start of the year is a direct warning for companies that depend on shoppers spending freely — retailers, restaurants, travel. When households feel shaky about jobs, they cut discretionary purchase'. Thesis: Consumer confidence falling to its worst reading since the start of the year is a direct warning for companies that depend on shoppers spending freely — retailers, restaurants, travel. When households feel shaky about jobs, they cut discretionary purchases first while still buying staples like groceries and toothpaste. Options desks are also showing a bump in expected volatility around the November midterms, meaning pros are already bracing for a bumpier, more nervous market. Buying the boring staples while shorting the fun stuff is the classic way to position for a weaker, anxious consumer.
Performance
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What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
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- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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