Public trading strategy
Fed Chair Warsh is deliberately staying vague about his rate plans, which one pr
Created
Thesis
Fed Chair Warsh is deliberately staying vague about his rate plans, which one prominent economist says is adding unnecessary volatility to markets. When investors can't predict what the central bank will do next, fear spikes and stocks become choppy. We are already seeing the spillover effect: Bitcoin is falling and crypto-linked stocks are swinging to losses as nervous traders pull back from risk. If this uncertainty continues, market turbulence will likely increase, and instruments that profit from big price swings — rather than from prices going up — become attractive.
Markets and timeframes
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Fade BB/ADX Momentum Spike — Vol ETP Short (UVXY@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: Fade BB/ADX Momentum Spike — Vol ETP Short (VXX@1d) (3 conditions)
- Exit: Mean Reversion Signal Exit (UVXY@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Mean Reversion Signal Exit (VXX@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% Downside Target (UVXY@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% Downside Target (VXX@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Above Resistance[2] (UVXY@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Above Resistance[2] (VXX@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Above Resistance[1] (UVXY@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: SL: Above Resistance[1] (VXX@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.0% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:VXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_uvxy",
"name": "Fade BB/ADX Momentum Spike — Vol ETP Short (UVXY@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:UVXY"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_vxx",
"name": "Fade BB/ADX Momentum Spike — Vol ETP Short (VXX@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:VXX"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "middle",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 15
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_uvxy",
"name": "Mean Reversion Signal Exit (UVXY@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UVXY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "middle",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 15
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_vxx",
"name": "Mean Reversion Signal Exit (VXX@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:VXX"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_uvxy",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% Downside Target (UVXY@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UVXY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_vxx",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% Downside Target (VXX@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:VXX"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_uvxy",
"name": "SL: Above Resistance[2] (UVXY@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UVXY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_vxx",
"name": "SL: Above Resistance[2] (VXX@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:VXX"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 786,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_uvxy",
"name": "SL: Above Resistance[1] (UVXY@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UVXY"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 786,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_vxx",
"name": "SL: Above Resistance[1] (VXX@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:VXX"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 786,
"risk_percent": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:VXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_uvxy",
"name": "Fade BB/ADX Momentum Spike — Vol ETP Short (UVXY@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:UVXY"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_vxx",
"name": "Fade BB/ADX Momentum Spike — Vol ETP Short (VXX@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:VXX"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "middle",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 15
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_uvxy",
"name": "Mean Reversion Signal Exit (UVXY@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UVXY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "middle",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 15
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_vxx",
"name": "Mean Reversion Signal Exit (VXX@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:VXX"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_uvxy",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% Downside Target (UVXY@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UVXY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_vxx",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% Downside Target (VXX@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:VXX"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_uvxy",
"name": "SL: Above Resistance[2] (UVXY@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UVXY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_vxx",
"name": "SL: Above Resistance[2] (VXX@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:VXX"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UVXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 786,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_uvxy",
"name": "SL: Above Resistance[1] (UVXY@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UVXY"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 786,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_vxx",
"name": "SL: Above Resistance[1] (VXX@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:VXX"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 786,
"risk_percent": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Fed Chair Warsh is deliberately staying vague about his rate plans, which one prominent economist says is adding unnecessary volatility to markets. When investors can't predict what the central bank will do next, fear spikes and stocks become choppy. We a'. Thesis: Fed Chair Warsh is deliberately staying vague about his rate plans, which one prominent economist says is adding unnecessary volatility to markets. When investors can't predict what the central bank will do next, fear spikes and stocks become choppy. We are already seeing the spillover effect: Bitcoin is falling and crypto-linked stocks are swinging to losses as nervous traders pull back from risk. If this uncertainty continues, market turbulence will likely increase, and instruments that profit from big price swings — rather than from prices going up — become attractive.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
Explore
How CommonQuant researches and tests strategies · Public paper-trading record and its limits · Discover public strategies