Russian refineries crippled by drone strikes and Hormuz shut — ride the energy s
Thesis
Over 50 regions in Russia are facing severe fuel shortages because Ukrainian drone strikes have taken 20-30% of the country's refining capacity offline. At the same time, Iran just closed the Strait of Hormuz, which is one of the world's most important oil shipping routes. With both the second-largest oil producer and a major shipping chokepoint under threat at the same time, global fuel prices are likely to keep climbing. That directly benefits major oil producers and energy companies, because the oil they already have in the ground becomes more valuable overnight.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters long XLE on D1 when RSI(14) > 60 and price closes above the 20-day SMA with ATR expanding. Exit when RSI(14) < 45 or after a 21-day max hold. Use a 6% trailing stop.