Two oil shocks at once — Iran and Russia both under attack, load up on oil major
Thesis
Oil prices are being hit from two directions at once. The US military struck over 80 sites in Iran and revoked Iran's oil sales waiver, while Bloomberg reports that tankers are barely moving through the critical Strait of Hormuz shipping lane. Layered on top of that, Ukraine just announced major drone strikes hitting three Russian refineries and oil tankers. When two of the world's largest oil-producing regions are both under active military disruption at the same time, the supply squeeze can push prices far higher than markets currently expect. The major integrated oil companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron move closely with oil prices but carry less risk of being directly shut down — so they are a cleaner way to play rising crude than trying to trade the commodity itself.
Strategy approach
Build a long momentum strategy on oil & gas equities. Enter long XOM, CVX, and COP on D1 when front-month crude oil futures (CL1) gap up >2% from previous close AND the 10-day ATR of CL1 is above its 60-day average (confirming a volatility expansion). Hold up to 14 days. Exit when CL1 closes below its 10-day low, or use a 7% trailing stop on the equity position, whichever comes first.