Public trading strategy
Fed rate-hike fears vanish on terrible jobs data — rotate into Bitcoin and gold
Created
Thesis
The June jobs report was a shocker, adding only 57,000 jobs versus the 115,000 expected. This instantly killed market expectations for a Fed rate hike, causing a massive bond rally and driving gold to hold multi-day gains. Because interest rates are no longer a threat, alternative assets like Bitcoin are surging back above $61,000 as capital looks to rotate out of the struggling AI/chip sector. Investors are treating Bitcoin and gold as the primary beneficiaries of this 'lower for longer' interest rate environment, making this the perfect moment to buy the crypto dip.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters long BTCUSD on D1 when the US 2-year Treasury yield drops 15 basis points over a 3-day window and the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (SOX) closes down >2% on the same day. Exit when BTCUSD makes a 20-day high or after a 14-day max hold. Apply a 6% trailing stop.
Markets and timeframes
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: DONCHIAN/ROC/ATR Crossover Long (BTC@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: DONCHIAN/ROC/ATR Crossover Long (GLD@1d) (3 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (BTC@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (GLD@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Position Exit Rule (BTC@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Position Exit Rule (GLD@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Position Exit Rule (BTC@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Position Exit Rule (GLD@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (BTC@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (GLD@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (BTC@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (GLD@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.6% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.2% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "GLD",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 3
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_btc",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ROC/ATR Crossover Long (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "GLD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "GLD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 3
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "GLD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_gld",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ROC/ATR Crossover Long (GLD@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "GLD"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_btc",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "GLD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_gld",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (GLD@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "GLD"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"left": {
"field": "entry_price",
"type": "position"
},
"op": "Subtract",
"right": {
"left": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 1.5
},
"op": "Multiply",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"type": "arithmetic"
},
"type": "arithmetic"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "SL: Position Exit Rule (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "GLD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"left": {
"field": "entry_price",
"type": "position"
},
"op": "Subtract",
"right": {
"left": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 1.5
},
"op": "Multiply",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "GLD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"type": "arithmetic"
},
"type": "arithmetic"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Position Exit Rule (GLD@1d)",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "GLD"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"left": {
"field": "entry_price",
"type": "position"
},
"op": "Add",
"right": {
"left": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
},
"op": "Multiply",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"type": "arithmetic"
},
"type": "arithmetic"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "TP: Position Exit Rule (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 11,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "GLD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"left": {
"field": "entry_price",
"type": "position"
},
"op": "Add",
"right": {
"left": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
},
"op": "Multiply",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "GLD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"type": "arithmetic"
},
"type": "arithmetic"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "TP: Position Exit Rule (GLD@1d)",
"priority": 11,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "GLD"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6_btc",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6_gld",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (GLD@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "GLD"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_7_btc",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_7_gld",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (GLD@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "GLD"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.5878
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_8",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.1756
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_9",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.2%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.5878,
"support_stop_rank": 1,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 3
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 3
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "GLD",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 3
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_btc",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ROC/ATR Crossover Long (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "GLD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "GLD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 3
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "GLD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_gld",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ROC/ATR Crossover Long (GLD@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "GLD"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_btc",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "GLD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_gld",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (GLD@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "GLD"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"left": {
"field": "entry_price",
"type": "position"
},
"op": "Subtract",
"right": {
"left": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 1.5
},
"op": "Multiply",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"type": "arithmetic"
},
"type": "arithmetic"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "SL: Position Exit Rule (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "GLD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"left": {
"field": "entry_price",
"type": "position"
},
"op": "Subtract",
"right": {
"left": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 1.5
},
"op": "Multiply",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "GLD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"type": "arithmetic"
},
"type": "arithmetic"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Position Exit Rule (GLD@1d)",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "GLD"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"left": {
"field": "entry_price",
"type": "position"
},
"op": "Add",
"right": {
"left": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
},
"op": "Multiply",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"type": "arithmetic"
},
"type": "arithmetic"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "TP: Position Exit Rule (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 11,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "GLD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"left": {
"field": "entry_price",
"type": "position"
},
"op": "Add",
"right": {
"left": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
},
"op": "Multiply",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "GLD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"type": "arithmetic"
},
"type": "arithmetic"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "TP: Position Exit Rule (GLD@1d)",
"priority": 11,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "GLD"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6_btc",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6_gld",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (GLD@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "GLD"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_7_btc",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_7_gld",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (GLD@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "GLD"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.5878
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_8",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.1756
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_9",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.2%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.5878,
"support_stop_rank": 1,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Fed rate-hike fears vanish on terrible jobs data — rotate into Bitcoin and gold'. Thesis: The June jobs report was a shocker, adding only 57,000 jobs versus the 115,000 expected. This instantly killed market expectations for a Fed rate hike, causing a massive bond rally and driving gold to hold multi-day gains. Because interest rates are no longer a threat, alternative assets like Bitcoin are surging back above $61,000 as capital looks to rotate out of the struggling AI/chip sector. Investors are treating Bitcoin and gold as the primary beneficiaries of this 'lower for longer' interest rate environment, making this the perfect moment to buy the crypto dip.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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