Public trading strategy
UPS reported a solid quarter with management signaling their business slump is b
Created
Thesis
UPS reported a solid quarter with management signaling their business slump is bottoming out. Normally this would push the stock higher, but the broader market's panic over chip stocks is dragging everything down. The real catalyst is oil: with the US pausing strikes on Iran, fuel costs are plunging, which dramatically lowers UPS's biggest operating expense. When you combine a beaten-down stock showing fundamental improvement with a sudden drop in its largest cost driver, it creates a strong disconnect that should correct to the upside once the market panic fades.
Strategy approach
UPS reported a solid quarter with management signaling their business slump is bottoming out. Normally this would push the stock higher, but the broader market's panic over chip stocks is dragging everything down. The real catalyst is oil: with the US pausing strikes on Iran, fuel costs are plunging, which dramatically lowers UPS's biggest operating expense. When you combine a beaten-down stock showing fundamental improvement with a sudden drop in its largest cost driver, it creates a strong disconnect that should correct to the upside once the market panic fades. Decision analysis profile: near_term. Required dimensions: as_of_session, catalyst_timing, expectations_priced_in, price_volume, liquidity_spread_volatility, dilution_capital_allocation, downside, actionability.
Markets and timeframes
UPS1D
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
UPS · 1d
1 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price crossed above EMA (200) — near
- RSI (14) below 45 — met
- RSI (14) crossed above 0 — far
- ADX (14) above 18 — far
- RSI (14) above 65 — far
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: EMA/RSI/ADX Crossover Long (UPS@1d) (4 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (UPS@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (UPS@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (UPS@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.0% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:UPS",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UPS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UPS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UPS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UPS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UPS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 18
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "EMA/RSI/ADX Crossover Long (UPS@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:UPS"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UPS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 65
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (UPS@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UPS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (UPS@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UPS"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UPS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (UPS@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UPS"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:UPS",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UPS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UPS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UPS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UPS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UPS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 18
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "EMA/RSI/ADX Crossover Long (UPS@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:UPS"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UPS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 65
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (UPS@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UPS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (UPS@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UPS"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UPS",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (UPS@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UPS"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'UPS reported a solid quarter with management signaling their business slump is bottoming out. Normally this would push the stock higher, but the broader market's panic over chip stocks is dragging everything down. The real catalyst is oil: with the US pau'. Thesis: UPS reported a solid quarter with management signaling their business slump is bottoming out. Normally this would push the stock higher, but the broader market's panic over chip stocks is dragging everything down. The real catalyst is oil: with the US pausing strikes on Iran, fuel costs are plunging, which dramatically lowers UPS's biggest operating expense. When you combine a beaten-down stock showing fundamental improvement with a sudden drop in its largest cost driver, it creates a strong disconnect that should correct to the upside once the market panic fades.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
Explore
How CommonQuant researches and tests strategies · Public paper-trading record and its limits · Discover public strategies