Public trading strategy
IBM plunges on AI capex shift, AI hardware names tumbling — double-short tech di
Created
Thesis
IBM's catastrophic earnings warning shows that their clients are aggressively shifting budgets away from legacy software to buy physical AI hardware. But the simultaneous collapse in stocks like Dell and Super Micro Computer reveals that the recent AI hardware buying frenzy has overheated and is now reversing. With corporate tech buyers caught in a messy transition and broader market sentiment souring, both legacy software and hardware companies are exposed to severe downward pressure right now. ## Story development — 2026-07-17 12:01 UTC **IBM crashes 25% on AI failure while analysts pile into Nvidia — buy the IBM dip and ride the NVDA leader** IBM just crashed 25% after its CEO admitted the company failed to adapt quickly enough, pushing the stock to a major crossroads. Meanwhile, Wall Street is doubling down on Nvidia as the undisputed AI leader, widening the growth gap between the two.
Strategy approach
Build a short-biased momentum strategy on IBM, DELL, and SMCI. Enter short positions on D1 timeframe if the asset closes below its prior day's low with volume > 120% of its 20-day average. Exit the trade immediately on a 1-day bullish engulfing reversal, or set a tight 4% stop loss.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
DELL · 1d
2 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- VWAP below 0 — unknown
- ADX (14) above 25 — met
- VWAP below 0 — unknown
- ADX (14) above 25 — met
- MFI (14) above 60 — unknown
IBM · 1d
2 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- VWAP below 0 — unknown
- ADX (14) above 25 — met
- VWAP below 0 — unknown
- ADX (14) above 25 — met
- MFI (14) above 60 — unknown
SMCI · 1d
0 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- VWAP below 0 — unknown
- ADX (14) above 25 — far
- VWAP below 0 — unknown
- ADX (14) above 25 — far
- MFI (14) above 60 — unknown
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: VWAP/ADX Signal Long (IBM@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: VWAP/ADX Signal Long (DELL@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: VWAP/ADX Signal Long (SMCI@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: VWAP/ADX Signal Long (IBM@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: VWAP/ADX Signal Long (DELL@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: VWAP/ADX Signal Long (SMCI@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: Crossover Long (IBM@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: Crossover Long (DELL@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: Crossover Long (SMCI@1d) (3 conditions)
- Exit: MFI Threshold Exit (IBM@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: MFI Threshold Exit (DELL@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: MFI Threshold Exit (SMCI@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (IBM@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (DELL@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (SMCI@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (IBM@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (DELL@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (SMCI@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.4% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.8% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:DELL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "vwap"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "high",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_ibm",
"name": "VWAP/ADX Signal Long (IBM@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:IBM"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DELL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DELL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "vwap"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DELL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DELL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "high",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DELL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_dell",
"name": "VWAP/ADX Signal Long (DELL@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:DELL"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "vwap"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "high",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_smci",
"name": "VWAP/ADX Signal Long (SMCI@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:SMCI"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "vwap"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_ibm",
"name": "VWAP/ADX Signal Long (IBM@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:IBM"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DELL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DELL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "vwap"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DELL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_dell",
"name": "VWAP/ADX Signal Long (DELL@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:DELL"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "vwap"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_smci",
"name": "VWAP/ADX Signal Long (SMCI@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:SMCI"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "high",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_ibm",
"name": "Crossover Long (IBM@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:IBM"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DELL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "high",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DELL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DELL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DELL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DELL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_dell",
"name": "Crossover Long (DELL@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:DELL"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "high",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_smci",
"name": "Crossover Long (SMCI@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:SMCI"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 1
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "mfi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_ibm",
"name": "MFI Threshold Exit (IBM@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:IBM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 1
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DELL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "mfi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_dell",
"name": "MFI Threshold Exit (DELL@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:DELL"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 1
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "mfi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_smci",
"name": "MFI Threshold Exit (SMCI@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SMCI"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_ibm",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (IBM@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:IBM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DELL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_dell",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (DELL@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:DELL"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_smci",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (SMCI@1d)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SMCI"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_ibm",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (IBM@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:IBM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DELL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_dell",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (DELL@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:DELL"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_smci",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (SMCI@1d)",
"priority": 102,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SMCI"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.377037037037037
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.4%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.754074074074074
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.8%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.377037037037037,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "vwap"
},
{
"name": "mfi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "vwap"
},
{
"name": "mfi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "vwap"
},
{
"name": "mfi",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:IBM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:DELL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:SMCI",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
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}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'IBM plunges on AI capex shift, AI hardware names tumbling — double-short tech disruption'. Thesis: IBM's catastrophic earnings warning shows that their clients are aggressively shifting budgets away from legacy software to buy physical AI hardware. But the simultaneous collapse in stocks like Dell and Super Micro Computer reveals that the recent AI hardware buying frenzy has overheated and is now reversing. With corporate tech buyers caught in a messy transition and broader market sentiment souring, both legacy software and hardware companies are exposed to severe downward pressure right now. ## Story development — 2026-07-17 12:01 UTC **IBM crashes 25% on AI failure while analysts pile into Nvidia — buy the IBM dip and ride the NVDA leader** IBM just crashed 25% after its CEO admitted the company failed to adapt quickly enough, pushing the stock to a major crossroads. Meanwhile, Wall Street is doubling down on Nvidia as the undisputed AI leader, widening the growth gap between the two.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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