Public trading strategy
Goldman says Turkey will let the lira slide — short the Turkish lira against the
Created
Thesis
When a major bank like Goldman Sachs says a country will tolerate its currency weakening, it usually means the central bank will stop spending reserves to defend it. Turkey is choosing to prioritize economic competitiveness over currency stability, which means the lira has further to fall with less government pushback. This removes the biggest risk for traders betting against the lira — sudden central bank intervention. The trade is straightforward: position for continued lira weakness against the dollar.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based carry-trade strategy that enters long USD/TRY on D1 when the pair closes at a 10-day high and the 20-day ATR is expanding (ATR_20 > ATR_20[5] as a volatility-confirmation filter). Exit when USD/TRY closes below its 10-day low. Use a 50-pip hard stop and a 21-day max hold. This captures the Goldman-predicted accelerated depreciation while limiting risk on sharp snap-backs.
Markets and timeframes
USD/TRYD1
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: DONCHIAN BREAKOUT + ATR EXPANSION LONG (TUR@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: DONCHIAN BREAKOUT + ATR EXPANSION LONG (UMC@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: DONCHIAN BREAKOUT + ATR EXPANSION LONG (TKC@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: DONCHIAN BREAKOUT + ATR EXPANSION LONG (UUP@1d) (3 conditions)
- Exit: Exit: Below Donchian Low (TUR@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Exit: Below Donchian Low (UMC@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Exit: Below Donchian Low (TKC@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Exit: Below Donchian Low (UUP@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Hard Stop at -2.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Time Stop at 21 Days (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:TUR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:UMC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:TKC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TUR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TUR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TUR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TUR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TUR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_tur",
"name": "DONCHIAN BREAKOUT + ATR EXPANSION LONG (TUR@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TUR"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UMC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UMC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UMC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UMC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UMC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_umc",
"name": "DONCHIAN BREAKOUT + ATR EXPANSION LONG (UMC@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:UMC"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TKC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TKC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TKC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TKC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TKC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_tkc",
"name": "DONCHIAN BREAKOUT + ATR EXPANSION LONG (TKC@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TKC"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_uup",
"name": "DONCHIAN BREAKOUT + ATR EXPANSION LONG (UUP@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:UUP"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TUR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TUR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_tur",
"name": "Exit: Below Donchian Low (TUR@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TUR"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UMC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UMC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_umc",
"name": "Exit: Below Donchian Low (UMC@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UMC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TKC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TKC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_tkc",
"name": "Exit: Below Donchian Low (TKC@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TKC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_uup",
"name": "Exit: Below Donchian Low (UUP@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UUP"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Hard Stop at -2.0%",
"priority": 50,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.0%",
"priority": 51,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 21
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "Time Stop at 21 Days",
"priority": 52,
"purpose": "signal"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 2,
"risk_percent": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:TUR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:UMC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:TKC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TUR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TUR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TUR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TUR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TUR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_tur",
"name": "DONCHIAN BREAKOUT + ATR EXPANSION LONG (TUR@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TUR"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UMC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UMC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UMC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UMC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UMC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_umc",
"name": "DONCHIAN BREAKOUT + ATR EXPANSION LONG (UMC@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:UMC"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TKC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TKC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TKC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TKC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TKC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_tkc",
"name": "DONCHIAN BREAKOUT + ATR EXPANSION LONG (TKC@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TKC"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_uup",
"name": "DONCHIAN BREAKOUT + ATR EXPANSION LONG (UUP@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:UUP"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TUR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TUR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_tur",
"name": "Exit: Below Donchian Low (TUR@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TUR"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UMC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UMC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_umc",
"name": "Exit: Below Donchian Low (UMC@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UMC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TKC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TKC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_tkc",
"name": "Exit: Below Donchian Low (TKC@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TKC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UUP",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_uup",
"name": "Exit: Below Donchian Low (UUP@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:UUP"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Hard Stop at -2.0%",
"priority": 50,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.0%",
"priority": 51,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 21
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "Time Stop at 21 Days",
"priority": 52,
"purpose": "signal"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 2,
"risk_percent": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Goldman says Turkey will let the lira slide — short the Turkish lira against the dollar'. Thesis: When a major bank like Goldman Sachs says a country will tolerate its currency weakening, it usually means the central bank will stop spending reserves to defend it. Turkey is choosing to prioritize economic competitiveness over currency stability, which means the lira has further to fall with less government pushback. This removes the biggest risk for traders betting against the lira — sudden central bank intervention. The trade is straightforward: position for continued lira weakness against the dollar.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
Explore
How CommonQuant researches and tests strategies · Public paper-trading record and its limits · Discover public strategies