Public trading strategy
Strategy stops buying Bitcoin as rates spike — short the crypto proxies
Created
Thesis
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has been the most aggressive corporate buyer of bitcoin, but it has now paused purchases for four straight weeks while sitting on massive paper losses. At the same time, inflation fears are building and experts warn Treasury yields could climb to 10%, which historically crushes speculative assets like crypto. Add in warnings that overall stock market buying has reached unsustainable, never-before-seen levels, and the setup for a sharp correction in bitcoin and its biggest corporate proxy is brewing. If Strategy is no longer backstopping the market and rates keep climbing, the main floor of support falls away.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters short MSTR and BTC-USD on H4 when the 10-year Treasury yield (TNX) makes a 20-day high and MSTR has not announced any bitcoin purchases for 21 consecutive days. Set a 21-day max hold and a 12% trailing stop.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
COIN · 4h
2 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- ADX (14) above 25 — met
- EMA (9) crossed below EMA (21) — near
- Price crossed below EMA (21) — near
- Donchian (20) above 0 — met
- EMA (9) crossed above EMA (21) — near
MSTR · 4h
2 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- ADX (14) above 25 — met
- EMA (9) crossed below EMA (21) — near
- Price crossed below EMA (21) — near
- Donchian (20) above 0 — met
- EMA (9) crossed above EMA (21) — near
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Short Trend Confirmation (MSTR@4h) (4 conditions)
- Entry: Short Trend Confirmation (COIN@4h) (4 conditions)
- Exit: Trend Reversal Exit (MSTR@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: Trend Reversal Exit (COIN@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit: Fib Extension 127.2% (MSTR@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit: Fib Extension 127.2% (COIN@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss: Fib Retracement 38.2% (MSTR@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss: Fib Retracement 38.2% (COIN@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.4% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.8% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:MSTR",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "4h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSTR",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSTR",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSTR",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSTR",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSTR",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSTR",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_mstr",
"name": "Short Trend Confirmation (MSTR@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:MSTR"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_coin",
"name": "Short Trend Confirmation (COIN@4h)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:COIN"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSTR",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSTR",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_mstr",
"name": "Trend Reversal Exit (MSTR@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:MSTR"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_coin",
"name": "Trend Reversal Exit (COIN@4h)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:COIN"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSTR",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSTR",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_mstr",
"name": "Take Profit: Fib Extension 127.2% (MSTR@4h)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:MSTR"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_coin",
"name": "Take Profit: Fib Extension 127.2% (COIN@4h)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:COIN"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSTR",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSTR",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 382,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_mstr",
"name": "Stop Loss: Fib Retracement 38.2% (MSTR@4h)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:MSTR"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 382,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_coin",
"name": "Stop Loss: Fib Retracement 38.2% (COIN@4h)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:COIN"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.4204285714285714
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.4%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.840857142857143
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.8%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 382,
"risk_percent": 2.4204285714285714,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:MSTR",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "4h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSTR",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSTR",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSTR",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSTR",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSTR",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSTR",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_mstr",
"name": "Short Trend Confirmation (MSTR@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:MSTR"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_coin",
"name": "Short Trend Confirmation (COIN@4h)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:COIN"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSTR",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSTR",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_mstr",
"name": "Trend Reversal Exit (MSTR@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:MSTR"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_coin",
"name": "Trend Reversal Exit (COIN@4h)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:COIN"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSTR",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSTR",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_mstr",
"name": "Take Profit: Fib Extension 127.2% (MSTR@4h)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:MSTR"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_coin",
"name": "Take Profit: Fib Extension 127.2% (COIN@4h)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:COIN"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSTR",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MSTR",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 382,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_mstr",
"name": "Stop Loss: Fib Retracement 38.2% (MSTR@4h)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:MSTR"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COIN",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 382,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_coin",
"name": "Stop Loss: Fib Retracement 38.2% (COIN@4h)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:COIN"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.4204285714285714
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.4%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.840857142857143
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.8%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 382,
"risk_percent": 2.4204285714285714,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Strategy stops buying Bitcoin as rates spike — short the crypto proxies'. Thesis: Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has been the most aggressive corporate buyer of bitcoin, but it has now paused purchases for four straight weeks while sitting on massive paper losses. At the same time, inflation fears are building and experts warn Treasury yields could climb to 10%, which historically crushes speculative assets like crypto. Add in warnings that overall stock market buying has reached unsustainable, never-before-seen levels, and the setup for a sharp correction in bitcoin and its biggest corporate proxy is brewing. If Strategy is no longer backstopping the market and rates keep climbing, the main floor of support falls away.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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