US-Iran ceasefire deal could be days away — buy the market relief rally before it's priced in
The U.S. struck Iranian military targets earlier this week, spooking markets and pushing oil higher. But now there are credible reports that a U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal is close, which could rapidly defuse the whole situation.
Idea
Markets hate uncertainty, and military strikes in the Middle East — especially near the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world's oil flows — create a lot of it. That fear pushed stocks down and oil up. But a ceasefire deal would remove that risk almost overnight. Stocks have already started recovering on the truce headlines, and history shows that when geopolitical fear spikes and then quickly reverses, the relief rally tends to be sharp. The key insight: Citadel's Scott Rubner just said the 'pain trade' is for stocks to keep rising, meaning anyone who sold in panic is now under pressure to buy back in. A confirmed deal would likely accelerate that dynamic.