Steel prices at four-year highs on tariffs — ride the momentum in US steelmakers while markets hide from the Fed

Verdict: The steel thesis is earning its keep — but the entry hasn't fired and insiders are selling

The strongest case for this idea is that the pricing-power mechanism is already visible in reported numbers: Nucor's quarter ended July 4, 2026 showed revenue up 9.5% to $10.4B, net income of $1.16B, and free cash flow of $829M, while Cliffs swung to $73M of free cash flow from -$477M the prior quarter with revenue up 6.2% to $5.23B — the thesis working exactly as described. The strongest case against is that the people closest to these companies don't appear convinced: in the provisional September 30, 2026 filings, insiders at NUE sold roughly $42.8M across 87 holders and CLF insiders were net sellers of about $2.9M, and Cliffs still runs a negative net margin (-2.8% in Q2) after losing money for years, with a diluted share count and no dividend since 2020. On top of that, the entry conditions have not materialized — the rules produced no trades across 60 months of tested daily bars, and CLF's RSI of 47.1 sits about five points above the 42 ceiling required, while NUE is nowhere close at 63.8. No robust parameter setup was established either, as the sensitivity evaluation returned no recommendation. The verdict: treat this as a disciplined watch list, not a position — wait for the CLF reversal to actually trigger, and treat a close below the $11.68 support as the idea's invalidation.

Trade now: two conditions met, two still pending — the setup is a watch, not a buy

This is a waiting setup. The strategy needs four things to line up on the same day before it buys either stock: price below the 50-day EMA, RSI (14) at or below 42, RSI turning back up through 40, and price crossing back above that 50-day EMA. As of the October 17 close, none of the entries has fired — the setup is a watch list, not an open trade. CLF is the closer of the two. At $12.12 the stock is only about $0.24 above the 50-day EMA at $11.88, so the price conditions sit on a knife's edge. The blocker is momentum: RSI (14) reads 47.1, roughly five points above the 42 ceiling the entry requires. If CLF pulls back to its nearest support at $12.13 and then $11.68, RSI could compress into range quickly, and a reversal through the EMA would complete the entry. NUE is much further away: at $256.29 it trades about $6.79 above its 50-day EMA of $249.50, and RSI at 63.8 is nearly 22 points above the trigger — this leg needs a real pullback before it is even close. If an entry fires in CLF, the exit map is already defined: a hard stop at a 2% loss on the position, a first take-profit at +4%, a signal-based exit at the nearest resistance of $12.45, and a technical stop if price breaks below the second support level (currently $11.68). Positions are capped at 25% of the book and sized so a full stop costs about 2% of the portfolio. Waiting, concretely, means: no position today, alerts set at RSI 42 on CLF and at the $12.13 and $11.68 support levels, and a second alert at RSI 42 on NUE should the broader market drag it down toward its EMA. One note on the evidence base: this strategy's rules were evaluated on real daily bars but produced no entries in the tested windows, so there are no realized trade statistics to cite — the decision today rests entirely on the live trigger levels above. US Steel (X) is excluded from the actionable list entirely: the data provider returned no price history for it, so no levels or triggers can be stated.

Pricing Power Is Already Showing Up in Nucor's Numbers

The idea's core claim — that tariff-driven steel pricing flows straight to producer revenues — is most visible at Nucor. In the quarter ended July 4, 2026, revenue rose 9.5% quarter over quarter to $10.4B, net income jumped 55.6% to $1.16B, and free cash flow surged to $829M from $225M the prior quarter. Gross margin expanded to 19.6% from 15.8%, and return on equity improved to 5.2% from 3.5%. That is the pricing-power mechanism working exactly as the thesis describes, on reported numbers rather than forecasts. Even the weaker name in the basket, Cleveland-Cliffs, shows the inflection the thesis is betting on. Cliffs' revenue rose 6.2% to $5.23B in the quarter ended June 30, 2026, gross margin swung from -1.7% to +2.5%, free cash flow turned positive at $73M after a -$477M first quarter, and operating cash flow recovered to +$230M from -$325M. If tariff-supported pricing is broadening beyond the strongest operator, Cliffs is the marginal proof point. The macro narrative is sourced, not speculative: per the Bloomberg piece published October 16, 2026, US steel prices have climbed to a four-year high as tariffs bite — the demand and pricing backdrop the thesis rests on. The same day, Bloomberg reported Bank of America's Hartnett warning that investors would avoid risk around the Fed decision and midterm elections. The thesis uses that defensive rotation to argue steel — a policy-protected, plain-business sector — can hold up while capital rotates out of technology. A note on evidence tier: the strategy rules were evaluated on real daily bars but did not open an entry in any of the tested windows (up to 60 months, 1,228 bars), so this is a watch-list setup rather than an active signal. That is a statement about current market conditions relative to the entry rules, not about the quality of the underlying thesis — and it means the setup, if it triggers, would be entering from a disciplined support-and-reversal state rather than chasing a rally.

Two Names, One Ledger Problem: Insiders Are Selling

The most uncomfortable data point is ownership posture. In the provisional…

Scores

• Conviction score breakdown: 48
• Thesis support: 75
• Trade readiness: 25
• Risk quality: 40
• Trigger proximity: 35
• Fundamentals trend: 65

Watch items

• CLF — RSI (14)
• CLF — Price vs 50-day EMA
• CLF — Nearest support level
• CLF — Insider net open-market activity
• NUE — RSI (14)
• NUE — Price vs 50-day EMA
• NUE — Insider net open-market activity
• NUE — Next dividend event