Oil in freefall as Trump signals Iran peace deal — ride the energy slide lower
Oil prices just suffered their worst month in six years as President Trump signals the U.S. is on the verge of a deal with Iran that could end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz — a critical shipping route for global oil supplies.
Idea
The Iran conflict has been the main thing keeping oil prices elevated since February, when the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of the world's oil flows — was effectively shut down. Now Trump is signaling a deal is imminent, which would reopen that critical shipping lane and unleash a flood of supply back onto the market. Oil already posted its worst monthly decline in six years, meaning the smart money is already positioning for lower prices. If a deal actually gets announced, the selling could accelerate sharply as the last remaining oil bulls throw in the towel. The risk is that the deal falls apart and prices snap back, so this trade needs a plan for getting out quickly if oil reverses higher.