Oil crashing 20% on Iran peace hopes — load up on treasury bonds as inflation fears melt
Oil has dropped 20% from its 2026 peak as President Trump signals a ceasefire deal with Iran is imminent. Government bonds are having their best week since the war started, because cheaper oil means less inflation pressure.
Idea
The Strait of Hormuz closure in February sent oil prices spiking and fueled inflation fears, hammering bonds. Now Trump is signaling a ceasefire deal is close, oil has already fallen 20%, and the key shipping route may reopen. Government bonds are already having their best week since the war began — and if a deal actually gets signed, there's room for more gains because the inflation pressure that was keeping bond prices down is fading fast. Think of it this way: cheaper gas and oil mean the Fed has less reason to keep rates high, which makes existing bonds more valuable.