Oil crashes 20% on Iran peace deal hopes — ride the energy sell-off
Oil prices have plunged 20% from their 2026 highs as the US and Iran move closer to a ceasefire deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important oil shipping lane that was blocked after the Iran war broke out in February.
Idea
The Iran war choked off oil through the Strait of Hormuz in February, causing a massive price spike. Now ceasefire talks are making real progress, and oil has already fallen 20% from its peak. If a deal is finalized and the strait reopens, the supply shock reverses and oil could keep falling fast. Major oil stocks like ExxonMobil and Chevron surged during the crisis and still have significant downside if prices normalize. Even the stock market is rallying on peace deal hopes, signaling broad investor confidence that de-escalation is real. The trend is clearly lower — this is about riding that momentum until the situation resolves.