## Session overview Chip names led the losers, with LRCX down roughly 5.24%, NVDA off about 4.57% after its record $442 billion daily gain, INTC lower by about 2.85%, and AMD down about 2.33%. Amazon bucked the tech softness with a near 3.97% gain on AI o

Verdict: This dip-buying basket is worth watching, not worth buying yet

The strongest case for this trade is the fundamental backdrop: NVIDIA reported $81.6B of revenue in the quarter ended April 26 (up 19.8% sequentially) with a 71.5% net margin and $48.6B of free cash flow, and AMD's net margin improved from 13.5% to 19.9% in the latest quarter — deteriorating sentiment into improving results is exactly the pattern this dip-buying entry hunts. The strongest case against is the recent live record: over the trailing 12 months the strategy ran 126 trades at a 42.1% win rate and lost 8.1%, bleeding steadily as chip names trended down rather than mean-reverting. Worse, none of the five entries is live today, and the published entry rules simultaneously require RSI at or below 40 and above 45 — a contradiction that cannot be satisfied, so there is no actionable trigger until it is resolved. Insider filings for the period ended 2026-06-30 also show net open-market selling across the tech cluster (NVDA insiders sold a net $375.3M, AMD $153.2M), which argues against chasing any partial setup. The verdict flips to a buy if the RSI-rule contradiction is resolved and a genuine 40–45 RSI trigger fires while the next insider filing cycle (quarter ending 2026-09-30, filed around early October) shows the selling slowing.

Trade now

**None of the five entries is live today.** The strategy waits for each chip name (NVDA, AMD, LRCX, INTC, AMZN) to close below its 21-period EMA and its lower Bollinger band while its RSI reads between 40 and 45. Right now AMD trades at 472.75 with RSI at 62.7 — the price conditions sit 1.50 above the EMA trigger and 5.51 above the lower band, and RSI is 22.7 points above the 40 threshold. AMZN is the closest: at 260.97 it already sits below both the EMA (262.38) and the lower band (261.91), and RSI at 43.6 is just 1.4 points below the 45 threshold — only 3.6 points above the 40 trigger. INTC at 96.14 has the price conditions met and RSI at 22.6, already below 40. NVDA (226.59, RSI 69.6) and LRCX (322.6, RSI 33.4) remain further away. **One configuration flag before you wait for a fill.** Each entry simultaneously requires RSI at or below 40 and above 45. As written, those two conditions cannot be satisfied at the same time, so no live trigger exists until that is resolved — the correct action today is to watch levels, not to deploy. Also note that the parameter-sensitivity review did not complete: no robust nearby-parameter setup was established, so the published rules should be taken exactly as written. **Risk and reward once a trigger exists.** The stop is a 2.3% loss on position value and the take-profit is a 4.7% gain, an effective reward-to-risk of roughly 2:1, with a maximum 60-bar holding period and positions capped at 20% of the portfolio. The completed 24-month backtest returned about 20.5% across 249 trades with a 49.8% win rate and a maximum drawdown of about 10.7% — consistent with a high-frequency, small-edge system where the 2:1 payoff does the work. Note that exits were filled on trigger-timeframe bars rather than intrabar data, so drawdown and win-rate figures are coarse. **What "wait" means concretely.** Do nothing until AMZN's RSI crosses into the 40–45 window with price below both the EMA (currently 262.38) and the lower band (261.91) — it is the only name within a few points of satisfying the price conditions. Re-check INTC if RSI rebounds from 22.6 back above 40, and treat any AMD break below 466–467 as the first stage of a potential setup, not a signal.

Buying chip dips has paid, and the fundamentals say the dips keep getting refilled

The 24-month completed backtest shows a strategy that works by buying weakness in quality semiconductor and AI-adjacent names and letting mean reversion do the work: 249 trades, a 49.8% win rate, and a 20.5% total return — with a maximum drawdown of about 10.7%. Pair that return profile with the fundamentals and the dip-buying thesis has real substance. NVIDIA's latest reported quarter ended April 26 delivered $81.6B of revenue, up 19.8% sequentially from $68.1B, with a 71.5% net margin and $48.6B in free cash flow. These are companies whose earnings accelerate fast enough that technical pullbacks tend to be temporary.

The most recent twelve months were a losing stretch

The equity curve tells a two-part story, and the recent part is unflattering. Over the 12 months through late August, the strategy ran 126 trades with a 42.1% win rate and produced a -8.1% return, with its peak-to-trough drawdown of 8.1% landing entirely in that window. The 24-month result (+20.5%) includes the strong 2024 recovery leg; the most recent year shows entries firing into chip-name weakness — LRCX down about 5.24%, NVDA off about 4.57% after its record $442 billion daily gain, INTC down about 2.85% — without bottoming quickly. The long-biased dip-buying framework bleeds steadily when the group trends down for months, which is exactly the regime the last year delivered.

Company context

### AMD **Ownership and insiders.** For the period ending 2026-06-30, 15 reporting holders were counted holding 7282318 reported shares. Insider filings indicate net open-market selling, netting US$-153237325.37. Coverage: Deadline Passed. **Management.** Dr. Lisa T. Su Ph.D. is identified as chief executive. Dr. Lisa T. Su Ph.D. is listed as Chair, President & CEO, with reported total pay of US$4.5M for fiscal 2025. Source: [Yahoo Finance quoteSummary](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/profile), retrieved 2026-09-05T07:39:38.61+00:00. **Dividends.** The provider's ten-year corporate-action history contains no cash dividend payments. Source: [Yahoo Finance corporate actions](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/history?filter=div), retrieved 2026-09-05T07:39:38.61+00:00. **Fundamental changes.** Latest filed comparisons: - Debt to equity: 3.4% on 2026-06-27 versus 3.6% on 2026-03-28 (-4.1%) - Free cash flow: 1.6B on 2026-06-27 versus 2.6B on 2026-03-28 (-39.3%) - Gross margin: 53.7% on 2026-06-27 versus 52.8% on 2026-03-28 (+1.8%) - Net Income: 2.3B on 2026-06-27 versus 1.4B on 2026-03-28 (+66.1%) - Net margin: 19.9% on 2026-06-27 versus 13.4% on 2026-03-28 (+47.6%) - Operating Cash Flow: 2.4B on 2026-06-27 versus 3.0B on 2026-03-28 (-19.9%) - Operating margin: 17.2% on 2026-06-27 versus 14.3% on 2026-03-28 (+19.8%) - Revenue: 11.5B on 2026-06-27 versus 10.3B on 2026-03-28 (+12.5%) - Return on equity: 3.4% on 2026-06-27 versus 2.1% on 2026-03-28 (+59.3%) - Shares Outstanding: 1.6B on 2026-06-27 versus 1.6B on 2026-03-28 (+0.1%) Source: SEC XBRL normalized facts. Each comparison uses the latest two non-null filed periods for that metric. ### AMZN **Ownership and insiders.** For the period ending 2026-06-30, 25 reporting holders were counted holding 31248860 reported shares. Insider filings indicate net open-market selling, netting US$-42947271.7. Coverage: Deadline Passed. **Management.** Mr. Andrew R. Jassy is identified as chief executive. Mr. Andrew R. Jassy is listed as President, CEO & Director, with reported total pay of US$2.1M for fiscal 2025. Source: [Yahoo Finance quoteSummary](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/profile), retrieved 2026-09-05T07:39:38.61+00:00. **Dividends.** The provider's ten-year corporate-action history contains no cash dividend payments. Source: [Yahoo Finance corporate actions](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history?filter=div), retrieved 2026-09-05T07:39:38.61+00:00. **Fundamental changes.** Latest filed comparisons: - Debt to equity: 23.3% on 2026-06-30 versus 26.9% on 2026-03-31 (-13.3%) - Free cash flow: -8.8B on 2026-06-30 versus -18.2B on 2026-03-31 (-51.5%) - Gross margin: 52.2% on 2026-06-30 versus 51.8% on 2026-03-31 (+0.8%) - Net Income: 62.6B on 2026-06-30 versus 30.3B on 2026-03-31 (+107.1%) - Net margin: 31.2% on 2026-06-30 versus 16.6% on 2026-03-31 (+87.4%) - Operating Cash Flow: 45.4B on 2026-06-30 versus 26.0B on 2026-03-31 (+74.3%) - Operating margin: 13.6% on 2026-06-30 versus 13.1% on 2026-03-31 (+4.2%) - Revenue: 200.6B on 2026-06-30 versus 181.5B on 2026-03-31 (+10.5%) - Return on equity: 11.3% on 2026-06-30 versus 6.8% on 2026-03-31 (+65.9%) - Shares Outstanding: 10.8B on 2026-06-30 versus 10.8B on 2026-03-31 (+0.3%) Source: SEC XBRL normalized facts. Each comparison uses the latest two non-null filed periods for that metric. ### CMCSA **Ownership and insiders.** For the period ending 2026-06-30, 10 reporting holders were counted holding 6624410 reported shares. Coverage: Deadline Passed. **Management.** Mr. Brian L. Roberts is identified as chief executive. Mr. Brian L. Roberts is listed as Chairman & Co-CEO, with reported total pay of US$11.7M for fiscal 2025.…

Scores

• Conviction score breakdown: 52
• Thesis support: 62
• Trade readiness: 25
• Risk quality: 55
• Backtest evidence: 48
• Fundamentals trend: 70

Watch items

• AMZN — RSI (14)
• INTC — RSI (14)
• AMD — Close vs lower Bollinger band
• LRCX — RSI (14)
• NVDA — RSI (14)
• NVDA — Insider net open-market activity
• AMD — Insider net open-market activity
• NVDA — Dividend event