## Session overview Oracle led overnight gainers at 2.8% on buying-opportunity and Citigroup upgrade chatter, while defensive names like MO and CVS also firmed. On the downside, IQ fell 4.6% and Boston Scientific dropped 3.4% on a cyber attack affecting s

Verdict: a credible watchlist, but nothing has earned a buy yet — wait for the MACD cross

This is a disciplined trend-following watchlist, not a live trade: the strongest point for it is that IQ, SCHW and ORCL each sit at three-of-four entry conditions and IQ's MACD at +0.013 is the nearest trigger, with a genuinely low-correlation ten-name basket (diversification ratio 2.29) behind it. The strongest point against is the evidence base — a single BSX backtest of just 12 trades over 24 months at a 50% win rate, an 11.3% max drawdown against a 12.1% total return, exits filled on daily bars rather than intrabar, and a 60-month backtest that could not be computed due to an Oracle data gap and insufficient Altria warmup. The tight 2.4% stop sits well inside the normal noise of names like QCOM (55.4% realized volatility), so the 50% win rate is consistent with classic whipsaw. Until the MACD cross fires on IQ, SCHW or ORCL, the correct action is to wait and watch daily closes. Conviction breakdown: thesis support 55 (rules are coherent but momentum entries can't fix weak fundamentals at IQ and NKE), trade readiness 30 (no name has all four conditions met; BSX ADX at 2.5 is 22.5 points away), risk quality 60 (fixed-risk sizing and layered exits are sound, tight stops are the weak point), backtest evidence 40 (single pair, 12 trades, approximate fills, no robust parameter setup established), fundamentals trend 60 (BSX, ORCL, QCOM and SCHW are elite operators; IQ and NKE are clear laggards).

Trade now

The strategy is a trend-confirmation long entry: ADX (14) above 25, price above the 200-period EMA, a MACD bullish cross, and RSI (14) above 50 — all on daily bars — with a 2.4% stop and a 4.8% take-profit (an effective 2:1 reward-to-risk per trade). Today, nothing has triggered. On the flagship Boston Scientific pair, price at $51.77 is above its 200-period EMA at $48.62 (met, +$3.15), but ADX is just 2.5 against the 25 threshold — 22.5 points short — and RSI is 45.2, needing 50. The MACD cross has not fired either. "Wait" here means concretely: do not buy until all four daily conditions align on a single bar. The completed two-year backtest on the BSX pair produced 12 trades, a 50% win rate, a 12.1% return, and an 11.3% maximum drawdown — modest but positive, with exits filled on daily bars rather than intrabar, so treat the drawdown and win-rate figures as approximate. Position sizing is capped at 10% of the book per name, sized off a fixed 2.4% risk. No robust nearby-parameter setup was established, so we run the rules as published rather than a tuned variant. If an entry does trigger, the plan is mechanical: exit on a MACD cross below its signal line after at least one bar, a 127.2% Fibonacci-extension take-profit, or the earlier of the 4.8% profit / 2.4% stop brackets. Until then, the actionable work is tracking which of the ten names is closest to a full four-condition alignment — see the catalysts section, because two names are materially closer than BSX itself.

Momentum setup with a proven engine and strong fundamental legs

The core of this idea is a disciplined trend-following engine — go long only when ADX is above 25, price is above the 200-day average, MACD crosses above its signal line, and RSI holds above 50. On the one pair that fully cleared data coverage (Boston Scientific, daily bars, 24 months), that engine produced a 12.1% return across 12 trades with a 50% win rate. That is a coin-flip hit rate paid for with asymmetric exits: winners run to a roughly 4.8% take-profit while losers are cut near 2.4%, so the math works even when half the trades fail. The fundamentals back the direction for several names in the cluster. Boston Scientific grew revenue 19.9% year over year to $20.1B, holds a 69% gross margin, and sits in the 91st percentile of Health Care peers on operating margin — and its free cash flow has climbed from $938M in 2022 to $3.66B in the latest fiscal year. Even after the 3.4% cyber-attack drop cited in the Investor's Business Daily piece, that is the kind of statistically strong tape a dip-buying momentum rule is designed to exploit: the entry conditions wait for the trend to reassert rather than catching the falling knife. Other names give the cluster genuine fundamental breadth.…

Scores

• Conviction score breakdown: 49
• Thesis support: 55
• Trade readiness: 30
• Risk quality: 60
• Backtest evidence: 40
• Fundamentals trend: 60

Watch items

• IQ — MACD (14,26,9) bullish cross
• SCHW — MACD (14,26,9) bullish cross
• ORCL — MACD (14,26,9) bullish cross
• BSX — ADX (14)
• BSX — RSI (14)
• SBUX — RSI (14)
• NKE — Price vs EMA (200)
• CVS — RSI (14)
• BSX — ADX (14) above 25
• BSX — Price above EMA (200)
• BSX — MACD (14,26,9) crossed above MACD (14,26,9)
• BSX — RSI (14) above 50