nebius

Nebius: hypergrowth story, but wait for the pullback to confirm

Nebius Group (NBIS) is a genuinely fast-scaling AI infrastructure business — revenue grew 479% to $529.8M in FY2025, gross margin expanded to 68.6%, and operating cash flow turned positive at $384.8M — but the entry setup hasn't fired. The trade readiness case is the weakest link: across 185 evaluated daily bars over nine months, the pullback conditions never triggered, and only one of the four entry conditions (price above the 50-day EMA at $216.31) is met today with the stock at $230.37, $2.60 above the Bollinger (20) band at $227.77. The strongest point against the trade is the cash profile: free cash flow widened to negative $3.68B on $4.07B of capex, putting Nebius in the bottom 0.3% of IT peers, while the most recent ownership filing for the period ended June 30, 2026 shows net open-market insider selling of roughly $259.7M. Note the $82.5M net income was driven by non-operating items — operating income was a $611.7M loss — so quality of earnings matters here. The verdict flips if the next quarterly filing shows free cash flow narrowing alongside insider selling turning to net buying; until then, this is a well-constructed watch-list idea, not a trade.

Trade now: NBIS is close to the pullback zone, but not in it

## Trade now: NBIS is close to the pullback zone, but not in it Nebius closed at $230.37, which is $2.60 **above** the Bollinger (20) middle band at $227.77 — the entry setup wants price **below** that band, so this condition is near but not met. The setup is a pullback-buy: it needs a close below the middle band, a low that touches or breaks the lower Bollinger band, price still holding above the 50-day EMA at $216.31, and then the RSI (14) turning back up through 45. Right now RSI (14) sits at 55.8, well above 45, so the momentum-turn condition is the farthest from triggering. Only one of the four entry conditions is currently met (price above the 50-day EMA). If the entry fires, the plan is concrete. The first take-profit level is the nearest resistance at $233.73, about 1.5% above the current close, with a second profit target of +4.6% on the position. Risk is capped two ways: a stop 2.3% below entry, or a close back below the second-rank support at $210, whichever hits first. That makes the effective reward-to-risk roughly 2-to-1 on the fixed-percentage targets. Position size is set at 2.3% account risk with a 25% maximum position weight. What "wait" means here: do nothing today. A quick fade of a few dollars would bring the Bollinger conditions into range, but the RSI cross-back-up-through-45 requirement means the entry can only confirm after momentum first cools — likely over multiple sessions. No robust alternative setup was established for this idea, so the published thresholds above are the ones to watch, unchanged.

Why the bull case still has support

The fundamentals behind Nebius Group (NBIS) show a business scaling at a pace that few information technology peers can match. Revenue grew to $529.8M in FY2025 from $91.5M the prior year — growth that puts the company in the 95th percentile among 788 sector peers. This is the raw material of the AI-infrastructure buildout thesis: if Nebius is contracting capacity with major AI customers, that demand is showing up in the top line, not just in press releases. The unit economics are also healthier than the headline losses…

Scores

• Conviction score breakdown: 46
• Thesis support: 60
• Trade readiness: 35
• Risk quality: 40
• Trigger proximity: 30
• Fundamentals trend: 65

Watch items

• NBIS — Close vs Bollinger (20) middle band
• NBIS — Daily low vs Bollinger (20) lower band
• NBIS — RSI (14)
• NBIS — Close vs EMA (50)
• NBIS — Close vs support at $220.00
• NBIS — Insider ownership filing direction
• NBIS — Free cash flow (next quarterly filing)
• NBIS — Next earnings report