Tradition Dubai Global Macro Advisor Steven Major says the global bond selloff is being driven largely by shifting interest-rate expectations rather than dysfunction or fiscal stress in the US Treasury market. He joined Horizons Middle East and Africa and

Verdict: the reversal thesis is sound, but nothing has confirmed it yet

The verdict is wait. Steven Major's Bloomberg view (September 2, 2026) that the bond selloff is expectations-driven rather than fiscal dysfunction is a coherent thesis, and the strategy smartly demands price confirmation — a TLT reclaim of the $83.41 50-day EMA, RSI above 45, and ADX above 20 — before committing capital. But TLT is nowhere close: it closed at $81.95, RSI reads 38.9, and ADX at 4.6 signals a trendless market, while USO's RSI of 74.5 means the oil leg has already run past the entry rule and chasing it violates the design. The strongest point for the idea is the disciplined confirmation structure and the near-zero (about -0.02) TLT–USO correlation, which makes the pairing genuinely diversifying once a signal fires. The strongest point against is the evidence base itself: three trades in sixty months, a 33% win rate, and a 0.69% total return is far too thin a sample to trust, and the most recent 24 months produced zero triggers. A confirmed TLT daily close above $83.41 with RSI crossing 45 and ADX above 20 would flip this toward actionable; a breakdown of USO's 50-day EMA at $126.75 would leave the idea with no live leg at all.

Trade now: TLT and USO are watchlist names, not buys today

Neither leg of this idea is actionable today, and the plan is to wait rather than pre-position. The strategy waits for a confirmed reversal long: TLT's close must cross above its 50-day EMA at $83.41, hold above the 200-day EMA at $85.68, RSI (14) must cross above 45, and ADX (14) must be above 20. TLT closed at $81.95, so price is $1.46 below the 50-day EMA and $3.73 below the 200-day EMA, RSI (14) reads 38.9 versus the 45 threshold, and ADX (14) at 4.6 is far from 20. Two of four conditions are near on price, but momentum and trend strength are nowhere close — the honest read is that this setup is dormant. USO is the mirror image: it is already running hot, not basing. At $141.15 it sits $14.40 above its 50-day EMA, above its 200-day EMA, and ADX (14) at 45.3 clears the 20 threshold, but RSI (14) at 74.5 means the crossing-above-45 condition has already been passed, not waiting to trigger — and chasing strength here is not what the entry rule asks for. The two instruments are nearly uncorrelated (correlation about -0.02 over the past two years), which is what makes the pair attractive once either signal fires. Risk framing if an entry later triggers: positions are sized at 2% risk per trade with a 25% maximum position, a hard stop hits at a 3% loss, the take-profit level is a 4% gain, and the structural stop is a close back below the 50-day EMA on either leg. The 60-month backtest traded three times for a 0.69% total return with a 33.3% win rate and a 6.3% maximum drawdown, so the strategy's own history says it is selective and small-bet by design. Note the 12-month window could not be evaluated due to insufficient history after data load, so no robust parameter setup was established; the frozen rules above are what you would trade. Concretely, waiting means: no position in TLT until a daily close is above $83.41 with RSI above 45 and ADX above 20, and no chase of USO while RSI sits in the mid-70s — let it either cool back toward its 50-day EMA at $126.75 or confirm continued trend strength on a fresh signal evaluation.

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The idea's anchor is Steven Major's Bloomberg interview from September 2, 2026, in which the Tradition Dubai Global Macro Advisor argues that the global bond selloff reflects shifting interest-rate expectations, not dysfunction or fiscal stress in the US Treasury market. That distinction matters for TLT holders: expectations-driven selloffs can reverse quickly when rate forecasts change, whereas structural fiscal dysfunction tends to grind value away. The same interview flags persistently high oil as a force that could compel further central-bank tightening, which gives USO a logical role in this pairing as the commodity leg that benefits from the very pressure weighing on duration. On the quantitative side, the strategy is a confirmed reversal setup: it goes long TLT or USO when price reclaims the 50-day moving…

Scores

• Conviction score breakdown: 38
• Thesis support: 55
• Trade readiness: 15
• Risk quality: 55
• Backtest evidence: 25
• Fundamentals trend: 40

Watch items

• TLT — Close vs 50-day EMA
• TLT — RSI (14)
• TLT — ADX (14)
• TLT — Close vs 200-day EMA
• USO — RSI (14)
• USO — Close vs 50-day EMA
• USO — ADX (14)
• TLT — Hard stop level on any future entry
• TLT — Price crossed above EMA (50)
• TLT — Price above EMA (200)
• TLT — RSI (14) crossed above 45
• TLT — ADX (14) above 20