Rate-hike fears vanish overnight — gold is ready to catch a bid
The job market just had a massive slowdown, which means the Fed likely won't raise rates. That sends bond yields tumbling, which takes away gold's biggest enemy and gives it a clear runway to rally alongside a stock market that just had its best quarter in years.
Idea
Gold had been capped below $4,100 as traders feared higher interest rates, which make non-yielding assets less attractive. This morning's brutal jobs report killed those rate-hike expectations and sent Treasury bonds rallying. With a falling interest rate tailwind and an economy still supported by a stock market coming off its best quarter in six years, the macro setup for gold is now optimal. The combination of a clear rate ceiling and underlying economic resilience sets up a perfect gold accumulation trade.
Key details
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News sources
- Bonds Rally as Weak Jobs Report Dims Fed Rate-Hike Expectations — Bloomberg
- Gold prices today, Thursday, July 2, 2026: Prices stay below $4,100 ahead of June jobs report — Yahoo Finance
- U.S. payroll growth slowed sharply in June, with only 57,000 jobs added — CoinDesk
- S&P 500, Nasdaq Head for Best Quarter in Six Years — WSJ