War and export bans squeeze fuel supply — go long US oil refiners
Military strikes on Iran are threatening a massive amount of the world's oil supply, just as Russia unexpectedly banned its own fuel exports. This one-two punch is causing diesel prices to see their biggest jumps in years, meaning companies that turn crude oil into fuel are about to see a massive surge in profits.
Idea
A combination of military escalation in the Middle East and a sudden Russian export ban is creating a desperate global scramble for fuel. Reuters reports that US diesel futures just posted their biggest daily jump in four years after Russia halted exports. Meanwhile, Bloomberg notes that US military strikes against Iran are threatening to choke off shipping lanes, and the US has revoked Iran's license to sell oil globally. When the supply of fuel drops dramatically but demand stays steady, the companies that actually process and refine that fuel see their profit margins explode. Going long the companies that make diesel and gasoline is the cleanest way to trade this supply crunch.