Oil collapsing as Iran peace deal nears — keep shorting energy stocks while the ceasefire momentum builds
Oil prices have fallen 20% from their 2026 peak as President Trump signals the U.S. is close to a ceasefire deal with Iran. If the Strait of Hormuz — the world's most important oil shipping lane — reopens, the supply shock that drove prices up could reverse quickly.
Idea
Oil has already dropped 20% from its peak, but the full deal hasn't even been signed yet — Trump says a 'final determination' is coming. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens after months of closure, the oil supply that was choked off will start flowing again, pushing prices even lower. Energy stocks like Exxon and Chevron tend to track oil prices closely, and they've already begun sliding. The bond market is signaling the same thing — Treasuries are having their best week since the war started, which is exactly what happens when investors expect lower energy costs and calmer markets ahead.