Berkshire backs the company buying up software castoffs — long Bending Spoons as money rotates out of tech

Verdict: A credible rotation thesis, but the setup is still waiting on its one missing bar

This is a watch-list setup, not a trade, and the discipline is the point: two of the four entry conditions are already met on the equal-weighted index (price at $526.35 sits above the 50-day moving average at $506.83, and trend strength reads 18.2 versus the 18.0 floor), and all that remains is a dip to first support at $520.98 followed by a close back above it. The strongest argument for the idea is the endorsement itself — per the CNBC report of October 17, Berkshire is backing Bending Spoons — and the rotation tailwind is corroborated by MarketWatch's October 17 piece on leadership shifting away from tech. The strongest argument against is that the subject, BMOS, has no retrievable fundamentals, dividend history, or issuer profile, so the entire bull case rests on the halo claim plus a two-week-old rotation trend, and the halo effect is asserted rather than documented in any flow data. The parameter-sensitivity evaluation exceeded its time budget, so no robust nearby setup was established and the published thresholds stand as written. We would wait for the pullback bar, and reassess immediately if support at $520.98 breaks without recovery, since that voids the entry and likely resets the level map toward $495.79.

Trade now: two of four entry conditions are live, the pullback is not

Nothing to execute yet, and that is by design. The strategy trades the equal-weighted index (RSP), not BMOS or BRK-B directly, and its entry needs four things at once: price above the 50-day moving average, a trend-strength reading above 18, a daily low that tags first support, and a close back above that support. Right now the first two are already met on the evaluated chart — price sits at $526.35 versus the 50-day average at $506.83, and trend strength is 18.2 versus the 18.0 threshold. What is missing is the pullback: first support is $520.98, so the index needs a dip of roughly 1% intraday that then closes back above that level. Until then, this is a watch-list setup, not a signal. If the entry does trigger, the exits are mechanical: a fixed 2% stop, a 4% take-profit, and a 40-session time limit, which makes the effective reward-to-risk 2-to-1 on any fill. Position sizing caps any single idea at 25% of the book with 2% fixed risk per position. Waiting concretely means setting alerts at $520.98 (support test) and $523.74 (nearest resistance, where the strategy would take profits if filled near there) and doing nothing until a daily bar prints a low at or below support with a close above it. One caveat that affects the plan: the parameter-sensitivity evaluation ran out of its time budget, so no robust alternative parameter setup was established — the published thresholds are the ones to watch, unchanged. The broader context remains the thesis's tailwind: per the idea, the equal-weighted market has risen two straight weeks while big tech just had its worst week in 18 months, and Berkshire's endorsement of Bending Spoons is framed as a quality signal for value-priced software.

A Rare Berkshire Endorsement, Delivered Into a Rotating Market

The bull case starts with the catalyst itself. Berkshire Hathaway rarely backs freshly public companies — its public equity book is famously concentrated in mature, cash-generating franchises — so a Berkshire investment in Bending Spoons, per CNBC's October 17, 2026 report on the company's plan to revive software castoffs, functions as a third-party quality screen. The idea argues this endorsement creates a halo effect that draws follow-on buying from funds that track Berkshire's moves, and the timing argument has a structural basis: Berkshire's own reported fundamentals justify why its imprimatur carries weight. In the quarter ended June 30, 2026, Berkshire reported $70.1B in revenue (up 11.1% from Q1's $63.1B), $25.7B in net income (up 154% quarter over quarter), and a net margin that jumped from 16.0% to 36.6%. This is a filter with teeth. The macro leg of the thesis is also directionally supported by the cited news. MarketWatch reported on October 17, 2026 that it was another strong week for the average stock as market leadership shifted away from tech, consistent with the idea's claim that the equal-weighted market has risen two straight weeks while mega-cap tech had its worst week in 18 months. A strategy built on 'boring, cheaper names outperforming' needs exactly that leadership rotation to persist, and two consecutive weeks is a real trend attempt, not a one-day blip. On the trade construction side, the setup is disciplined rather than predictive-only. The entry waits for the equal-weighted benchmark to hold above its 50-day trend line, show trend strength (a 14-period trend-strength reading above 18), and then reclaim a support level on a closing basis — with a defined 2% stop, a 4% profit target, and a 40-bar time exit. Position sizing is capped at 25% of the account with roughly 2% risk per trade. That framework means the…

Scores

• Conviction score breakdown: 53
• Thesis support: 62
• Trade readiness: 55
• Risk quality: 48
• Trigger proximity: 70
• Fundamentals trend: 30

Watch items

• RSP — Daily low vs first support
• RSP — ADX (14)
• RSP — Close vs 50-day EMA
• RSP — Close vs first support
• RSP — Nearest resistance
• BMOS — Reported fundamentals availability