Nobody spends billions on new factories unless order books are full for years — ASML breaking ground on new facilities is management voting with its capex that chip-equipment demand stays strong. With the whole market fixated on oil and the Middle East, t

Verdict: Strong business, unconfirmed trade — wait for the setup to line up

**Verdict:** The business case here is genuinely strong — FY2025 revenue grew 15.6% to $32.7B, net income rose 26.9% to $9.6B, free cash flow climbed 21.8% to $11.1B, and debt relative to equity fell to 0.14, all of which support the idea's argument (per Reuters) that the September 8, 2026 facility groundbreaking is management spending real money on real demand. But the trade itself isn't ready: only one of four entry conditions is met, with ADX (14) at 19.0 still below 20 and RSI (14) at 50.2 not yet printing a fresh cross above 45, so buying now would be anticipation, not the system. The backtest record is the weakest link — the 60-month window returned just 0.8% over 6 trades (50% wins, 1.9% max drawdown), and the eye-catching 12-month result (2.7%, three winners) rests on a sample of three trades. Ownership visibility also says little: the 13F filing for the period ended June 30, 2026 (deadline passed) shows only 9 holders with 243,450 shares, a sliver of the 385.4M-share float. The verdict flips to actionable if all four entry rules confirm on the same trigger before a close above the $1,772.15 resistance invalidates the discount-entry premise.

Trade now: wait — three of four entry conditions are not live on ASML

ASML closed at $1,729.52, essentially sitting on its 50-day EMA at $1,729.82 — the price condition is only $0.30 from lining up, but it needs a confirmed daily close back above the average, and that has not printed yet. Of the four entry conditions, only one is met: price is $27.61 below the Bollinger (20) middle band at $1,757.13. The other two are out of range — RSI (14) at 50.2 needs a fresh upward cross above 45 from below, and ADX (14) at 19.0 needs to climb above 20. Until all four line up on the same trigger, the right move is to wait, not pre-position. If the setup triggers near current levels (~$1,730), the risk framing is straightforward: a fixed stop 2.3% below entry (roughly $1,690), a fixed take-profit 4.6% above entry (roughly $1,809), a structural exit if price closes above the first resistance level at $1,772.15, and a time exit at 120 trading bars. That implies roughly 2-to-1 reward-to-risk, and the fixed-risk sizing caps each position at 25% of capital with about 2.3% risk per trade. In practice, "wait" means checking each daily close against the 50-day EMA and the ADX-above-20 condition — no partial entries, no anticipation buys. The completed backtest supports this patience: over 60 months the setup made 6 trades, winning half, for a 0.8% strategy return with a maximum drawdown of 1.9%; the most recent 12-month window produced 3 trades, all winners, returning 2.7% with under 0.1% drawdown. Keep in mind that exit fills were modeled on daily bars, so the reported drawdown and win rates are coarse. Parameter sensitivity ran no variants within its time budget, so no optimized alternative setup is recommended — trade the published rules as written or not at all.

The Fundamentals Back the Capex Vote of Confidence

The thesis is that ASML's new-facility construction (per the Reuters report on the September 8, 2026 groundbreaking) is management spending real money on expected demand, and the fiscal 2025 numbers back that read. Revenue rose 15.6% to $32.7B, net income jumped 26.9% to $9.6B, and free cash flow climbed 21.8% to $11.1B. A company does not…

Scores

• Conviction score breakdown: 56
• Thesis support: 75
• Trade readiness: 30
• Risk quality: 55
• Backtest evidence: 35
• Fundamentals trend: 85

Watch items

• ASML — ADX (14)
• ASML — RSI (14)
• ASML — Close vs EMA (50)
• ASML — Price vs first resistance
• ASML — Price vs support level 2
• ASML — Ex-dividend date
• ASML — Ownership filing coverage