Iran oil blocked and tankers stuck at Hormuz — long oil majors on supply shock
The US has struck Iran and blocked its oil sales, causing oil prices to surge. With tankers barely getting through the critical Strait of Hormuz shipping lane and inflation fears already spiking, oil producers are positioned to keep cashing in on rising prices.
Idea
The US military has carried out strikes on over 80 Iranian targets and revoked the waiver that allowed Iran's oil sales, per Bloomberg. Simultaneously, oil prices have surged as attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz have spooked tanker owners — Bloomberg reports only a handful of carriers are braving the passage. This physical supply disruption is already having second-order effects: German bund yields have climbed above 3% as higher oil prices reignite inflation fears. When a chokepoint like Hormuz is effectively blocked and Iranian barrels are removed from the market, the supply shock drives up crude — and oil majors with diversified production capture the windfall directly.