Cheap oil isn't coming back even with an Iran ceasefire — accumulate big energy stocks
Even though the US and Iran may be moving toward a ceasefire, analysts say oil prices are unlikely to return to $60 anytime soon. Meanwhile, the oil shock is already pushing manufacturing costs higher across the globe — China just saw its export prices jump the most in three years.
Idea
Normally a ceasefire would push oil prices down fast, but this time the structural supply picture has shifted — analysts believe $60 oil is gone for good. Even with peace talks progressing, oil remains elevated because years of underinvestment in new drilling have constrained supply. China's export prices surging at the fastest pace in three years confirms the oil shock is rippling through the real economy, which keeps energy company profit margins fat. Big oil stocks like Exxon and Chevron tend to rally in this kind of environment and also pay strong dividends, making them a relatively defensive way to play persistent inflation.